Sunday, August 17, 2008
Day Ten
Beijing, China. Friday, August 15th 2008.
Outside the Water Cube and on ‘the strip’ in Beijing near the Forbidden City.
That this is an amazing structure is to be understated. It has a steel frame to which is attached a lattice of heavy transparent plastic “pillows ” or bubble. Each bubble contains a battery of multicolored lights wired to a terminal that allows a computer program to choose which color is to be displayed at any given moment. In the evening the programmer sends various messages to the exterior walls, most of which are in Chinese. The messages are essential “Welcome” and “One world.”
You can touch the bubbles from the inside, although you are risking being sent to Mongolia to work on building a highway if you do! Because wondering minds “want to know” I felt obligated to give it a careful finger…or two. My impression is that it is definitely pressurized and my fear is that like anything of this sort, it will not be pressurized indefinitely. I can identify a number of patches where probing fingers may have been a little too probing. There are a lot of highways to build for the developing Chinese I guess.
The lower ground level consists of a wall of glass that has water being pumped to the top of each pane allowing the water to run down along the glass into reflecting pools at your feet. This exists inside as well as 1/3 of the way along the outside. It is quite dramatic at night as the reflecting pond do their job quite well and produce an illusion of a much bigger structure than it actually is. For spectator safety, the pools are about three inches deep. More probing fingers.
The ceiling over the pool also consists of these bubbles and in this case they are translucent. As a result, the pool is lighted largely by the sun and it works very well as you can tell from the television images. Looks kinda cool too!
Between the competition pool and warm-up and warm-down pools there is a “lobby” of sorts accessible from the ground level. Both of these pools actually sit below ground level and perpendicular to each other. There is a 50 meter glass window that allows you to watch the coaches and swimmers preparing for their races.
Many athletes are not able to communicate with their coaches because the coaches do not have clearance. Another way of looking at this is: many coaches are not able to communicate with their athletes. This is because security allows few coaches (and team officials) representing any given country actual access into competitive areas. This has created a situation whereby coaches are “miming” instructions to their athletes through the glass and down on the non-competition pool using hand signals to provide feedback and further instructions. Despite the obstacle, it seems quite effective.
As you have may have read, Dara Torres travels with quite an entourage. When she is preparing to swim (and then recovering from her swim) she does not have the ability to access ‘Team Dara.’ And so…. Dara exits the competition arena and has a complete staff set up in this glass hallway. Her routine is there for all to witness (and many to film). I personally felt a little weird about filming this routine. But I will describe it briefly. There is much grunting and groaning and if I am completely honest… the groaning appears genuine and appropriate. What her ‘handlers’ do to her looks and sounds like it hurts. A lot. To quote Coach Steen again “A whole lot! It apparently works for her. There is a lot of limb twisting and flesh pounding and lots of walking on body parts. It has been written in the NY Times that she pays a small fortune for the privilege. I can’t help but thinking that there are many swim fans that would do this for free. But of course… they wouldn’t be trained professionals now would they?
Dara has to be admired for the way she has performed and behaved. Not that a forty-one year-old shouldn’t know how to behave! But I know many fifty-somethings who don’t seem to know how to behave! And I bet you do too. But watching her behavior towards the other athletes ( and their response towards her) … warm and supportive… is really pretty impressive. She always seems to be able to smile and she always seems to have something nice to say. Interviews that I have seen seem genuine and candid. She doesn’t seem to obsess and seems simply happy for the experience. The other swimmers clearly are in awe. Heck, I am in awe. Again, pretty cool!
When you think about it for a for a bit, Dara entered the national/international scene at age sixteen years. Given that fact, it is true that she was swimming at this level before nearly all of her competitors here were born. Think about that for a moment. This might be the secret behind her ability to smile and “enjoy the moment.” It could also be that she has a two year old to share this with somewhere down the road.
I have been asked to comment about Dara’s success repeatedly as some of our recent research effort has been directed towards older athletes. “Is her performance remarkable? Could other older athletes achieve similar success? What makes Dara different? And of course… the cynical “is she doping?” My answers are always positive and supportive. To “is this remarkable?” I reply “ I don’t know!” And I really don’t. Mainly this is because few athletes at her age have made the attempt. There really isn’t much data that would suggest that what Dara is doing is impossible. Most research suggests that there are declines in physiological markers of aging that begin to show decrements in the mid-thirties. But you have to consider that most of this is cross sectional data and that it doesn’t take into account that most people become increasingly sedentary in their mid-thirties.
Athletes in other sports continue to excel into their late thirties and early forties. The winner of the women’s Olympic marathon yesterday (or maybe today) was 38 years old, I believe. There simply isn’t much data on middle-aged women and their ability to perform work. For one thing, who would fund such research? The federal government has set priorities for medical research and that pertaining to healthy people isn’t very far up on the list and understandably so.
To train at the level required to be successful at this level seems to require three things: opportunity, motivation and incentive. The first, opportunity, essentially comes down to a coach willing to train you, a pool in which you can swim, and adequate time to be able to train. Most athletes have the burden of trying to eat, pay the rent, and accomplish everything else in life that allows you to survive. Dara has had the opportunity.
Motivation is the next factor. This is out of my domain (as a physiologist) and perhaps could better be handled by a sport Psychologist such as our Dr Raglin here at IU. Motivation is a personal and or psychological issue that coaches (and athletes) deal with nearly minute to minute. It is difficult to understand what motivates athletes, let alone just plain people, to do what they do. Having dealt with two kids and two step-kids… all I can say is that it remains a topic of mystery to me.
The flip side of motivation, or a component of it, has to be incentive. This is often much more tangible and could be a contributor to motivation. It could be setting records ( Phelps - eight for eight in 08!) or it could be making money. It might be personal identity as an athlete or being a member of team. It might be representing the USA in the Olympics or setting an example for other women. In short, Dara clearly has/had the incentive to prepare for these Games. Former Coach Knight while still a member of the IU family once commented that “All athletes have the will to win, champions have the will to prepare to win!” Will implies motivation and incentive. Prepare requires the third component, opportunity.
From the biologist’s perspective, the data on aging suggests that performance and in this case athletic performance, declines at a rate that is roughly ½ of that of the common biological markers of aging. Many of these markers decline at or around one half percent per year after age 30 years or so. In Dara’s case, we could easily hypothesize that given she was an Olympic medalist at age 33 years (the oldest swimmer to do so and a record she has now extended by eight years!) even if her physiology caused a 2% decline over the last ten years, she started off being 5% faster than her competitors years ago!
You could ask, “why was she faster than her competitors way back when?” Good question. Relevant question. If there is an athlete whose stroke mechanics I would recommend our swimmers (and other swimmers) emulate… it is Dara Torres. She swims with mechanics that my mentor, Doc Counsilman, would love! She, in my opinion, has nearly flawless freestyle technique. Nothing fancy or unusual but simple classic freestyle mechanics.
Technique can trump limitations imposed by physiology and I suppose, psychology. Our other “technicians” include Michael Phelps in his fly, Aaron Peirsol swimming backstroke, Natalie Coughlin … in almost every event and the Japanese swimmer Kitajima in breaststroke. Rebecca Soni isn’t too bad either. But improvement in technique is something swim coaches should and necessarily do focus on. But as is often quoted in the coaching profession “you can lead a horse to water but you can’t force him to drink.” Athletes make the changes, coaches coach. Athletes swim the races, coaches hold the stop watches.
So, to quickly draw conclusions here, consider this: Dara Torres might not be so unusual but there isn’t enough data to support this either way. She is truly a remarkable human specimen at six feet tall, lean and muscular. She has long arms and big feet. She has performed at the international level for more than twenty years. She is motivated, has incentive and has the opportunity to prepare for the USA Olympic Trials in such a way that has provided her with the chance to race here in Beijing. The question no one has asked yet, is: “can she do it again four years from now?” My answer would be… why not?
Now for something completely different:
The music within the hall is eclectic to be honest. It includes American country music (some song about a woman in a mini skirt) and Madonna (I think) and a little light rock. At first I thought I would like to have a cd of the music they play here. But after more than a week of listening to this at a decibel level just below that which could pop a balloon let alone shatter glass… I can only quote the famous boxer “no mas!” Does anyone know how to ask in polite Chinese “ Please, could you turn the music down – just a notch?”
And can you imagine attending a swim meet without a heat sheet? I quit asking officials on day three because I could tell there was a problem in translation. They kept responding to my question with “do not concern yourself with the heat. The pool is air conditioned.”
Jason Lezak continues to impress. I wouldn’t recommend mimicking his stroke mechanics though his results have to be placed up there with the best of all time. Michael needs to take him to dinner… twice. And pay. Phelps would have two fewer gold medals to his credit if Lezak were eating popcorn shrimp of the top of Jingwuay Mountian miles south of here. I hope that Jason is remembered in US Olympic history as one of, if not the best relay swimmers of all time.
Some final observations. China is changing and changing fast. There are things going on here that are incredible and would not have been possible ten years ago. I spent several hours yesterday visiting a ‘humong’. This consists of a cluster of homes built in the twelfth and thirteen centuries and still inhabited today. Many square miles of these were eliminated to build the venues for the Olympic Games. Estimates suggest that as many as 1.5 million people were displaced and their ancient homes destroyed to make way for this event. It isn’t clear what use the venues will be put to after the 2008 Games and yet the people here are proud of what they have been able to accomplish. Nevertheless, those Humongs which continue to exist have been designated as world heritage sites and currently protected from further removal.
Under the communist rule post WWII, there was repression and isolation from the world community. The Chinese remember this era well and are nearly universally optimistic about their personal future and that of their country. “Beijing” I was told by a local, “Is Washington D.C., New York City, Beverly Hills all combined. It is the best of China and a world into itself.” That is so true.
We spent time last night in a cultural district near the Forbidden City. Following a “two duck dinner” comprised of Peking Duck (kaoya) in a restaurant (QuanJuDe) whose doors first opened during America’s civil war (1864), we watched (with several hundred Chinese patriots) the USA women defeat the Chinese in volleyball. (no hard feelings right?) on a wall-sized TV. We then strolled a street (Jiuha Jie?) that I would have to say rivals (and combines) the French Quarters in New Orleans, the music strip in Nashville, Tennessee, Las Ramblas in Barcelona, Spain, Deep Ellum in Dallas and South Beach in Miami for being a chaotic mix of contemporary music, modern art, food, high fashion and people. I was very hesitant about visiting this area but our local friend made it clear that we had to see this to believe it. It was every bit the spectacle she promised and for me a shock to my senses. It has caused me to rethink my perceptions of China and the ‘Middle Kingdom.” The young people here are like young people everywhere. Through advances in technology and, of course, the internet, the world has become much smaller and in many ways much freer community. The creativity of the people of china was on full display (think of the architecture and artistic presentation of the opening ceremonies) and aptly reflects what I saw on this avenue. Unfortunately, I didn’t have a camera with me. But photos wouldn’t have done justice to the experience anyway. You can probably find some on the web if you are really motivated. It was a fitting end to my experiences in Beijing and China. It was also a much more fitting image of what the future entails here and what the organizers of the BOG-2008 games envisioned. The images we have of sullen workers in blue collarless garb is no more. The image of China should be of a creative, energetic and optimistic society rushing headlong into the future with confidence and hope. The doors are open and I encourage those of you who travel to consider Beijing as a interesting and unusual experience! Thanks for your interest in my travels, swimming and this and that. I hope you enjoyed my musings! See you soon in B’town.
Outside the Water Cube and on ‘the strip’ in Beijing near the Forbidden City.
That this is an amazing structure is to be understated. It has a steel frame to which is attached a lattice of heavy transparent plastic “pillows ” or bubble. Each bubble contains a battery of multicolored lights wired to a terminal that allows a computer program to choose which color is to be displayed at any given moment. In the evening the programmer sends various messages to the exterior walls, most of which are in Chinese. The messages are essential “Welcome” and “One world.”
You can touch the bubbles from the inside, although you are risking being sent to Mongolia to work on building a highway if you do! Because wondering minds “want to know” I felt obligated to give it a careful finger…or two. My impression is that it is definitely pressurized and my fear is that like anything of this sort, it will not be pressurized indefinitely. I can identify a number of patches where probing fingers may have been a little too probing. There are a lot of highways to build for the developing Chinese I guess.
The lower ground level consists of a wall of glass that has water being pumped to the top of each pane allowing the water to run down along the glass into reflecting pools at your feet. This exists inside as well as 1/3 of the way along the outside. It is quite dramatic at night as the reflecting pond do their job quite well and produce an illusion of a much bigger structure than it actually is. For spectator safety, the pools are about three inches deep. More probing fingers.
The ceiling over the pool also consists of these bubbles and in this case they are translucent. As a result, the pool is lighted largely by the sun and it works very well as you can tell from the television images. Looks kinda cool too!
Between the competition pool and warm-up and warm-down pools there is a “lobby” of sorts accessible from the ground level. Both of these pools actually sit below ground level and perpendicular to each other. There is a 50 meter glass window that allows you to watch the coaches and swimmers preparing for their races.
Many athletes are not able to communicate with their coaches because the coaches do not have clearance. Another way of looking at this is: many coaches are not able to communicate with their athletes. This is because security allows few coaches (and team officials) representing any given country actual access into competitive areas. This has created a situation whereby coaches are “miming” instructions to their athletes through the glass and down on the non-competition pool using hand signals to provide feedback and further instructions. Despite the obstacle, it seems quite effective.
As you have may have read, Dara Torres travels with quite an entourage. When she is preparing to swim (and then recovering from her swim) she does not have the ability to access ‘Team Dara.’ And so…. Dara exits the competition arena and has a complete staff set up in this glass hallway. Her routine is there for all to witness (and many to film). I personally felt a little weird about filming this routine. But I will describe it briefly. There is much grunting and groaning and if I am completely honest… the groaning appears genuine and appropriate. What her ‘handlers’ do to her looks and sounds like it hurts. A lot. To quote Coach Steen again “A whole lot! It apparently works for her. There is a lot of limb twisting and flesh pounding and lots of walking on body parts. It has been written in the NY Times that she pays a small fortune for the privilege. I can’t help but thinking that there are many swim fans that would do this for free. But of course… they wouldn’t be trained professionals now would they?
Dara has to be admired for the way she has performed and behaved. Not that a forty-one year-old shouldn’t know how to behave! But I know many fifty-somethings who don’t seem to know how to behave! And I bet you do too. But watching her behavior towards the other athletes ( and their response towards her) … warm and supportive… is really pretty impressive. She always seems to be able to smile and she always seems to have something nice to say. Interviews that I have seen seem genuine and candid. She doesn’t seem to obsess and seems simply happy for the experience. The other swimmers clearly are in awe. Heck, I am in awe. Again, pretty cool!
When you think about it for a for a bit, Dara entered the national/international scene at age sixteen years. Given that fact, it is true that she was swimming at this level before nearly all of her competitors here were born. Think about that for a moment. This might be the secret behind her ability to smile and “enjoy the moment.” It could also be that she has a two year old to share this with somewhere down the road.
I have been asked to comment about Dara’s success repeatedly as some of our recent research effort has been directed towards older athletes. “Is her performance remarkable? Could other older athletes achieve similar success? What makes Dara different? And of course… the cynical “is she doping?” My answers are always positive and supportive. To “is this remarkable?” I reply “ I don’t know!” And I really don’t. Mainly this is because few athletes at her age have made the attempt. There really isn’t much data that would suggest that what Dara is doing is impossible. Most research suggests that there are declines in physiological markers of aging that begin to show decrements in the mid-thirties. But you have to consider that most of this is cross sectional data and that it doesn’t take into account that most people become increasingly sedentary in their mid-thirties.
Athletes in other sports continue to excel into their late thirties and early forties. The winner of the women’s Olympic marathon yesterday (or maybe today) was 38 years old, I believe. There simply isn’t much data on middle-aged women and their ability to perform work. For one thing, who would fund such research? The federal government has set priorities for medical research and that pertaining to healthy people isn’t very far up on the list and understandably so.
To train at the level required to be successful at this level seems to require three things: opportunity, motivation and incentive. The first, opportunity, essentially comes down to a coach willing to train you, a pool in which you can swim, and adequate time to be able to train. Most athletes have the burden of trying to eat, pay the rent, and accomplish everything else in life that allows you to survive. Dara has had the opportunity.
Motivation is the next factor. This is out of my domain (as a physiologist) and perhaps could better be handled by a sport Psychologist such as our Dr Raglin here at IU. Motivation is a personal and or psychological issue that coaches (and athletes) deal with nearly minute to minute. It is difficult to understand what motivates athletes, let alone just plain people, to do what they do. Having dealt with two kids and two step-kids… all I can say is that it remains a topic of mystery to me.
The flip side of motivation, or a component of it, has to be incentive. This is often much more tangible and could be a contributor to motivation. It could be setting records ( Phelps - eight for eight in 08!) or it could be making money. It might be personal identity as an athlete or being a member of team. It might be representing the USA in the Olympics or setting an example for other women. In short, Dara clearly has/had the incentive to prepare for these Games. Former Coach Knight while still a member of the IU family once commented that “All athletes have the will to win, champions have the will to prepare to win!” Will implies motivation and incentive. Prepare requires the third component, opportunity.
From the biologist’s perspective, the data on aging suggests that performance and in this case athletic performance, declines at a rate that is roughly ½ of that of the common biological markers of aging. Many of these markers decline at or around one half percent per year after age 30 years or so. In Dara’s case, we could easily hypothesize that given she was an Olympic medalist at age 33 years (the oldest swimmer to do so and a record she has now extended by eight years!) even if her physiology caused a 2% decline over the last ten years, she started off being 5% faster than her competitors years ago!
You could ask, “why was she faster than her competitors way back when?” Good question. Relevant question. If there is an athlete whose stroke mechanics I would recommend our swimmers (and other swimmers) emulate… it is Dara Torres. She swims with mechanics that my mentor, Doc Counsilman, would love! She, in my opinion, has nearly flawless freestyle technique. Nothing fancy or unusual but simple classic freestyle mechanics.
Technique can trump limitations imposed by physiology and I suppose, psychology. Our other “technicians” include Michael Phelps in his fly, Aaron Peirsol swimming backstroke, Natalie Coughlin … in almost every event and the Japanese swimmer Kitajima in breaststroke. Rebecca Soni isn’t too bad either. But improvement in technique is something swim coaches should and necessarily do focus on. But as is often quoted in the coaching profession “you can lead a horse to water but you can’t force him to drink.” Athletes make the changes, coaches coach. Athletes swim the races, coaches hold the stop watches.
So, to quickly draw conclusions here, consider this: Dara Torres might not be so unusual but there isn’t enough data to support this either way. She is truly a remarkable human specimen at six feet tall, lean and muscular. She has long arms and big feet. She has performed at the international level for more than twenty years. She is motivated, has incentive and has the opportunity to prepare for the USA Olympic Trials in such a way that has provided her with the chance to race here in Beijing. The question no one has asked yet, is: “can she do it again four years from now?” My answer would be… why not?
Now for something completely different:
The music within the hall is eclectic to be honest. It includes American country music (some song about a woman in a mini skirt) and Madonna (I think) and a little light rock. At first I thought I would like to have a cd of the music they play here. But after more than a week of listening to this at a decibel level just below that which could pop a balloon let alone shatter glass… I can only quote the famous boxer “no mas!” Does anyone know how to ask in polite Chinese “ Please, could you turn the music down – just a notch?”
And can you imagine attending a swim meet without a heat sheet? I quit asking officials on day three because I could tell there was a problem in translation. They kept responding to my question with “do not concern yourself with the heat. The pool is air conditioned.”
Jason Lezak continues to impress. I wouldn’t recommend mimicking his stroke mechanics though his results have to be placed up there with the best of all time. Michael needs to take him to dinner… twice. And pay. Phelps would have two fewer gold medals to his credit if Lezak were eating popcorn shrimp of the top of Jingwuay Mountian miles south of here. I hope that Jason is remembered in US Olympic history as one of, if not the best relay swimmers of all time.
Some final observations. China is changing and changing fast. There are things going on here that are incredible and would not have been possible ten years ago. I spent several hours yesterday visiting a ‘humong’. This consists of a cluster of homes built in the twelfth and thirteen centuries and still inhabited today. Many square miles of these were eliminated to build the venues for the Olympic Games. Estimates suggest that as many as 1.5 million people were displaced and their ancient homes destroyed to make way for this event. It isn’t clear what use the venues will be put to after the 2008 Games and yet the people here are proud of what they have been able to accomplish. Nevertheless, those Humongs which continue to exist have been designated as world heritage sites and currently protected from further removal.
Under the communist rule post WWII, there was repression and isolation from the world community. The Chinese remember this era well and are nearly universally optimistic about their personal future and that of their country. “Beijing” I was told by a local, “Is Washington D.C., New York City, Beverly Hills all combined. It is the best of China and a world into itself.” That is so true.
We spent time last night in a cultural district near the Forbidden City. Following a “two duck dinner” comprised of Peking Duck (kaoya) in a restaurant (QuanJuDe) whose doors first opened during America’s civil war (1864), we watched (with several hundred Chinese patriots) the USA women defeat the Chinese in volleyball. (no hard feelings right?) on a wall-sized TV. We then strolled a street (Jiuha Jie?) that I would have to say rivals (and combines) the French Quarters in New Orleans, the music strip in Nashville, Tennessee, Las Ramblas in Barcelona, Spain, Deep Ellum in Dallas and South Beach in Miami for being a chaotic mix of contemporary music, modern art, food, high fashion and people. I was very hesitant about visiting this area but our local friend made it clear that we had to see this to believe it. It was every bit the spectacle she promised and for me a shock to my senses. It has caused me to rethink my perceptions of China and the ‘Middle Kingdom.” The young people here are like young people everywhere. Through advances in technology and, of course, the internet, the world has become much smaller and in many ways much freer community. The creativity of the people of china was on full display (think of the architecture and artistic presentation of the opening ceremonies) and aptly reflects what I saw on this avenue. Unfortunately, I didn’t have a camera with me. But photos wouldn’t have done justice to the experience anyway. You can probably find some on the web if you are really motivated. It was a fitting end to my experiences in Beijing and China. It was also a much more fitting image of what the future entails here and what the organizers of the BOG-2008 games envisioned. The images we have of sullen workers in blue collarless garb is no more. The image of China should be of a creative, energetic and optimistic society rushing headlong into the future with confidence and hope. The doors are open and I encourage those of you who travel to consider Beijing as a interesting and unusual experience! Thanks for your interest in my travels, swimming and this and that. I hope you enjoyed my musings! See you soon in B’town.
Thursday, August 14, 2008
Olympic Research Update by the Counsilman Center
For those of you who are interested.. in statistics, we can make an educated guess (of an unknown mean) with a certain amount of confidence based on our sample data. A 95% confidence interval is a range of values (plus or minus 2 standard deviations) between which we are 95% confident the actual mean will lie. So, if an event is more than 2 standard deviations faster (or slower) than our predicted mean, then we can say there is a significant difference between the actual and predicted means. Of course, there is always chance for error and, on occasion, we conclude that the two means are different when in reality they are not.
Our predicted means are based on the previous 7 Olympics Games and, in many cases, are very strong. That is, our ability to predict the mean of the final heat in many swimming events is strengthened by the fact that we can account for (in many cases) up to 90% of the variance. What this means is, although the rate of improvement of the top 8 swimmers in each event over time is not linear, it is predictable. Theoretically, if there are a number of events in the 2008 Olympic Games that fall outside of plus or minus 2 standard deviations of our predicted mean, then there may be some outside variable(s) working to alter swim performance. Without proper scientific testing, our explanation of any extraordinary change in performance is speculative at best.
So far, with 10 events remaining (5 men, 5 women), we have successfully predicted the mean of the top 8 finalists in two male and 4 female events. Our predictions were more than two standard deviations slower than the actual top 8 mean in 6 men’s and 4 women’s events and, in many cases, were so much faster than our confidence interval that I nearly choked on a chocolate covered cherry (good for recovery)! Compare that with our failed predictions in 2000 (1 men’s event) and 2004 (2 men’s events) and one cannot help but ponder possible explanations for these phenomenal performances. Further, virtually all of the 2008 finalists are below the lower confidence interval. For example, in the men’s 200 fly and 100 freestyle, seven of the eight finalists were faster than the fastest time that would allow for our predictions to be successful. Our failed predictions are not the result of one or two guys being so far ahead of the field, rather across the board everyone is faster.
Along with our predicted means, we have also listed the athletes who had previously swum within out confidence interval. It is reasonable to assume that these athletes have a chance to final and perhaps win. Of course it is possible to have a ‘dark horse’ bust out of the cornfields and win a medal, but if there are many instances when a swimmer ‘off the radar’ wins gold… well we’ll leave that to the scientists. Oh, right… this may be further evidence supporting a substantial shift in the progression of swim performance over time. Of the events so far, Park (South Korea) was not previously within our predicted range, but won gold in the 400 FR and silver in the 200 FR. Also, the women’s 400 FR, 200 FR, and 200 Fly had medalists who were not previously within our predictions.
Finally, to provide further evidence that a bias has been introduced into competitive swim performance, the number of world record performances in the last two years has been much greater than we predicted based on previous years. Averaged over the last 30 years, the month of August has had about 4 world records. So far, 18 world records have dropped in the 2008 Olympic Games. While it is true that previous Olympics have had as many, if not more, world record performances, the suggested bias in 2008 is supported by the fact that that the rate of change (as a function of simply the number of WR occurrences) appears to be slowing at a relatively stable rate within the last 24 years or so. That is, much like the rate of improvement in any given event is declining as our sport matures, the number of world record performances has been getting less and less over time. Until recently. The cause of this temporary irregularity will be speculative, at best, unless reinforced by historical confirmations. Please see the following link fyi.
http://research.indiana.edu/news/stories/0220.html
Regards,
Chris Brammer
Counsilman Center for the Science of Swimming
Our predicted means are based on the previous 7 Olympics Games and, in many cases, are very strong. That is, our ability to predict the mean of the final heat in many swimming events is strengthened by the fact that we can account for (in many cases) up to 90% of the variance. What this means is, although the rate of improvement of the top 8 swimmers in each event over time is not linear, it is predictable. Theoretically, if there are a number of events in the 2008 Olympic Games that fall outside of plus or minus 2 standard deviations of our predicted mean, then there may be some outside variable(s) working to alter swim performance. Without proper scientific testing, our explanation of any extraordinary change in performance is speculative at best.
So far, with 10 events remaining (5 men, 5 women), we have successfully predicted the mean of the top 8 finalists in two male and 4 female events. Our predictions were more than two standard deviations slower than the actual top 8 mean in 6 men’s and 4 women’s events and, in many cases, were so much faster than our confidence interval that I nearly choked on a chocolate covered cherry (good for recovery)! Compare that with our failed predictions in 2000 (1 men’s event) and 2004 (2 men’s events) and one cannot help but ponder possible explanations for these phenomenal performances. Further, virtually all of the 2008 finalists are below the lower confidence interval. For example, in the men’s 200 fly and 100 freestyle, seven of the eight finalists were faster than the fastest time that would allow for our predictions to be successful. Our failed predictions are not the result of one or two guys being so far ahead of the field, rather across the board everyone is faster.
Along with our predicted means, we have also listed the athletes who had previously swum within out confidence interval. It is reasonable to assume that these athletes have a chance to final and perhaps win. Of course it is possible to have a ‘dark horse’ bust out of the cornfields and win a medal, but if there are many instances when a swimmer ‘off the radar’ wins gold… well we’ll leave that to the scientists. Oh, right… this may be further evidence supporting a substantial shift in the progression of swim performance over time. Of the events so far, Park (South Korea) was not previously within our predicted range, but won gold in the 400 FR and silver in the 200 FR. Also, the women’s 400 FR, 200 FR, and 200 Fly had medalists who were not previously within our predictions.
Finally, to provide further evidence that a bias has been introduced into competitive swim performance, the number of world record performances in the last two years has been much greater than we predicted based on previous years. Averaged over the last 30 years, the month of August has had about 4 world records. So far, 18 world records have dropped in the 2008 Olympic Games. While it is true that previous Olympics have had as many, if not more, world record performances, the suggested bias in 2008 is supported by the fact that that the rate of change (as a function of simply the number of WR occurrences) appears to be slowing at a relatively stable rate within the last 24 years or so. That is, much like the rate of improvement in any given event is declining as our sport matures, the number of world record performances has been getting less and less over time. Until recently. The cause of this temporary irregularity will be speculative, at best, unless reinforced by historical confirmations. Please see the following link fyi.
http://research.indiana.edu/news/stories/0220.html
Regards,
Chris Brammer
Counsilman Center for the Science of Swimming
Day 9
Thursday in Beijing, Min Zu Yuan Rd. Chao Yang PRC
Records, records and a few disappointments for the US team.
But first this:
The first few days here it seemed as if we pretty much had Olympic Green to ourselves. This appears to be as a result of only a few competitions taking place here--- early in the week. All that changed yesterday and in a big way. People from around the world are arriving here and the village is coming alive. I like it. We discussed the possibility that the Chinese had over estimated things given the sparse nature of the crowds we were seeing (were seeing) and now we know differently. The crowds have arrived. It is great! I suspect that once Track and Field events begin it will be very busy here as the Birds Nest is gigantic and seats around 90 thousand.
(This just in…. turns out the Chinese are now selling non-event tickets that allow you into the Olympic Green but don’t allow you to go see an event. You can visit the displays, buy food ( see below) and souvenirs. I am not sure they are selling them.., but if I had to guess, I’d say they are. Given there are 12 million or so people in the city…. What a great idea!)
It is still true that there are very few Europeans and fewer Americans. When you do run into them (them is us!) they are very likely to be affiliated with a team or parent, sister, brother or athlete. The theme the Chinese are shouting loudly appears to be true.. as “we are one world” rings very true here.
I had lunch today at McDonalds. It is very hard to admit this but quite honestly it is the best food choice available. Actually, it is the only choice available. Well, not quite the only choice.
You can, however, buy self-cooked lunches here. Self- cooked doesn’t mean what it means at home. The consumer does little. The lunch cooks itself. You pull a string on the lower portion of the container and it releases water into a chemical pack. The water begins to superheat through a chemical reaction and rapidly reaches phase change or boiling temperature. Your food cooks while you stand at the food kiosk watching. After ten minutes the ‘meal’ is ready to go…. If it weren’t too hot to pick up. Which it is. So you have to wait ten minutes before you can go anywhere.
What is it? Rice and some kind of chicken…. Uhh… parts. “Chicken parts.” That is the only way to describe the contents. But the meal is hot. “Hot chicken parts.” Perhaps that is the Chinese translation. I suppose I should tell you that when they cut up a chicken here, they don’t bother to remove the bones first? So the “hot chicken parts should maybe be something akin to “Crunchy and hot chicken parts.” And while it sounds bland, I can attest to the fact that it is anything but. To make it edible the manufacturer adds plenty of pepper and other spices. Thus, to be exact (which the Chinese usually are) the meal is more accurately referred to as “ Self-cooked, spicy and crunchy, hot chicken parts.” With rice. I almost forgot. “Self cooked, spicy and crunchy, hot chicken parts with rice.” Steamed white rice. Well, you get the idea. McDonalds is a better option.
And as long as we are on that topic, McDonalds is a major sponsor and thus, as the Chinese Organizer have assured sponsors that there will be no competition in the venue…. Mickie D’s is it. So it really does come down to a Big Mac or “self cooked spicy, and crunchy, hot chicken parts with steamed rice.” No competition there.
I am forced to add some personal commentary here. My friend Pan from China has told me "the Chinese will eat everything with legs except the kitchen table.” “And many more things that don’t have legs.” Menus are long and the variety of food stuffs is amazing. You have to wonder why they would embrace a menu with about a dozen realistic choices… all imported directly from America. America where our children face an epidemic of health concerns related to obesity.
And while on that topic… it is very unusual to see anyone from China overweight and even more uncommon to see anyone who could accurately be referred to as obese. Do you think that there is a connection between American fast food and…. traditional Chinese fare… and obesity? Could be. There are probably other factors as well. But the bottom line is that for now…when out on the streets of Beijing… you see fit and trim locals and very few overweight people--- regardless of age. Someone needs to understand how and or why this is true.
And one more thought on this topic. My mother always encouraged me to finish my dinner because there were “starving children in China..” So mom, I gotta tell you right now, I haven’t seen any. You can rest easy after all these years of worry. And Beijing is a city of over twelve million souls! It is not as if the Chinese government has hidden them all. We see children everywhere we go.
It is true that they have far fewer material belongings than we Americans do. We could all live without about 80% of what we have. True? But that is another issue all together. As far as food goes…. there appears to be plenty of it here. And yet, no rampant obesity. Hmmmm. All these thoughts come while sitting in a McDonalds in BOG Olympic Green among an estimated nine hundred Chinese. I want to hold up a sign that says “be careful of what you wish for!”
On to swimming for just a bit. The onslaught (is that the correct expression?) of world records in swimming is perplexing. Maybe even troubling. The causes and or reasons for the recent multiple records in competitive swimming, however, are of interest to both the general public, swimmers and coaches and the scientific community. Why now? Is it a matter of significantly better talent? How much faster can the records get? Is this really an unusual occurrence and are the records being set at an unprecedented rate? It sure seems so! Are the new records a result of new training techniques or enhanced nutrition? Is the technology associated with the new swims suits or novel pharmacology assisting swimmers in a manner that prior to now did not occur? As usual, the questions are much easier to pose than is the process for finding the correct answers to them. There may, however, be evidence available that helps shed light on this ‘record setting’ observation.
In the past, scholarly interest in the prediction of the boundaries of human performance has largely focused upon performance in running events. Similar to swimming, however, there is very little technology required by the track athlete beyond a pair of shoes. That used to be especially true for swimming. Until now.
In track, as a means to predict performances, initial analyses relied primarily upon linear regression models using prior performances to predict future athletic records. Criticism of this approach include the observation that linear models do not allow for an ‘ultimate limit’ to human performance. Eventually, given enough time, the linear models supposed by several authors predict “humans will run negative world record times”. While this is clearly absurd, linear models of performance do not allow or accept that there may be physiological, anatomical and biomechanical limitations that simply cannot be overcome by better training, more practice or better protoplasm.
Neither do these early linear models take into account improvements in such factors as nutrition, coaching knowledge, sociological and or economic factors that might influence performance (in either direction). Finally, linear models do not account for the fact that the characteristics of the competitors and competition used to generate model may influence the slope of the progression line. If the sport has only recently been introduced, it stands to reason that the rate of improvement will be greater early on as compared with that observed twenty or thirty years later simply as a matter of the sport itself approaching maturity.
For example, analysis of women’s events would suggest that their performances are improving at a greater rate than are the men’s. As a result, linear analysis suggests that eventually, in some events, the women’s records will eclipse those of the men. While not impossible, it is more likely that the relationship is not linear and that with time, the rate of improvement in women’s records will slow and become similar to that seen in the progression of the men’s records.
Human movement in the water, i.e., swimming, in many ways is a more complicated athletic performance to understand than is running. This is due, in part, to our current inability to fully understand and explain the fundamental biomechanics of swimming. Because of the complex nature of the relationships between propulsive forces and resistive forces in the water the mechanisms that allow humans to move at speeds in excess of two meters a second are, as yet, only partially described. Nevertheless, statistical analysis of swim performances can be performed in a manner similar to what has been done in running with the singular reasonable assumption that there is a limit to how fast a human can swim over a set distance.
Have I lost you yet? Yes? Maybe it is the double cheese burger I just ate! Or maybe it was the caffeine in the Coke (another major sponsor) which is said to heighten arousal and enhance brain activity. Hang with me.
Let’s try this: pictures are worth a thousand words, right? So here goes.
Chris Brammer, Dave Tanner and Kosuke Kojima and I have been thinking about this for the last couple weeks. Chris put together for me a couple of graphs to illustrate what is taking place. Figure 1 represents the improvement in swim speed in the men’s 100-meter freestyle when represented as speed (meters per second) as a function of time. The values provided are the average of all of the records set within an Olympiad quadrennial. Thus, for example, although the first person to swim faster than two meters per second for 100 meters did so in 1976 (Jim Montgomery, USA, 1976) the mean value for records during that Olympiad was somewhat less than two meters per second. This relationship can also be represented as simply date vs. event time (in seconds) as shown in Figure 2.
One caveat to any mathematical analysis of swim performance (and subsequent predictions of performance) based upon prior performances, is that undefined and confounding variables may introduce biases into the analysis and potentially perturbs the ability of any subsequent model to be accurate. For example, documented use of performance enhancing pharmacological compounds during the early to mid 1970’s causes an overestimation of the rate of potential improvements in subsequent years. In other words, performances subsequent to this era will appear as if something has caused a slowing of the progression rather than the return to a normal ‘unbiased’ progression after drug usage was curbed by advanced testing or the ability to secure the most effective drugs. As time goes by, however, additional performances will ‘correct’ the model allowing for earlier truly biased performances to be seen. The cause of the temporary perturbations will be speculative, at best, unless reinforced by historical confirmations.
In this regard, modeling performances on past competition might allow insight into one current controversy in competitive swimming. The newly introduced “body suits” pit swimming purists directly against commercial financial interests. The debate centers on the introduction of high technology swim apparel into swim competition. Until recently, the regulatory concern within the competitive swimming community was to enforce the rules that insured enough coverage in a swim suit worn during competition as to be socially acceptable. The newest generation suits eliminate this problem by covering the majority of the skin surface with reputedly ‘low resistance’ fabrics and materials. Due to the nature of commerce and claims of “proprietary” knowledge, very little specific data exists identifying the magnitude (if any) of the effect of these new suits on swim performance. Because of the existent rules in swimming limiting the use of technology to improve performance or alter buoyancy, commercial marketing of these suits is limited to inferences about the improvements in performance rather than any specifics. It is reasoned that the influence of the new high-tech suits can be measured if mathematical models based upon swim performances prior to their introduction are sensitive enough to do so. Interestingly, because none of these new suits existed prior to 2000 and it is possible to document when newer versions have been introduced, the athletes and their performances can be used to test if these suits have introduced unnatural rates of improvement into the sport.
An additional hypothesis might be that the recent attention and financial rewards generated by the Olympic Games might be a catalyst for setting world records in swimming such that not only are more records set during the year prior to the Olympic year but more records are set specifically during the month the Olympic Games (and Olympic Trials) are held. While there are other important competitions in swimming (World Championships, Pan Pacifics, Commonwealth Games, etc), the Olympic Games still represent the pinnacle of public awareness and the greatest opportunity for financial support for the athletes. The bottom line is this: sitting in the stands in the “Water Cube” over the last three days… I can’t remember the number of world records that have been set. Let’s just say a lot. Coach Steen adds ”a whole lot.”
The problem is, we don’t know at this point, who (or what) should be getting credit for these records. Many people are giving Speedo and TYR credit. Others would like to give the athletes and coaches at least some credit. But nobody really knows for sure. It isn’t as if the swimming community sat down and discussed all of this beforehand. There wasn’t any initiative by the swim community to “stimulate excitement by shortening the pool or changing the rules to elevate competition.” Major league baseball did do this a few years ago when they lowered the pitchers mound to help improve batting averages. The result was better hitting and more offense. Fundamentally, that is different from what is taking place in swimming here today. A corporate entity (or two or three) decided it could cash in by circumventing the rules governing the sport. Sure Michael Phelps deserves credit for all of his success. But to what extend are his records aided by Speedo? Is this ’technological doping’ as one Italian coach suggested... or not? The problem is…. We simply don’t know!
More to come later…. as it is time now to attend another Olympic swim extravaganza.! Results will follow. As will more of this story…. A long, long, long story!!
Ok. Back to business. The US women are struggling. Hopefully we will update you on that tomorrow or later today. Soni has done a terrific job so far and looks good going into the last couple days. Beard isn’t going to make it in the 200. Hoff and Zeigler are done in the 800 I think. They did not look good tonight. In this case, it might also be due to the suit. Only it might be a negative rather than a positive one. It could be affecting their body position in the water altering their feel. The Chinese women looked terrific and they swam in simple, traditional swim suits tonight! Ha! The 100 fly was very, very fast and we will be lucky to get two medals here if any at all. The fifty free was even faster. I just don’t see the USA getting anything there. You had to be faster than the standing Olympic record to make into the finals. Yow min. There was no holding back and no coasting in this one. The big conundrum for the USA comes to Phelps or Crocker in the 4 x 100 medley relay. If Crocker sets a record in the 100 fly and wins… how do you choose Phelps for the relay? He did not impress tonight. If Crocker wins but does not set the record….does he still go in the relay? If he does…. it doesn’t matter anyway because Phelps no longer has a shot at eight. But Phelps is swimming well and Crocker…. We’ll see!
Do you know why 8 is such a big deal? It is the best number in China…. Lucky lucky lucky. Hence 8/8/08!
Tomorrow. Downtown Beijing. The markets, the neighborhoods. The Temple of Heaven. The Summer Palace and a two hour interview with the ‘Newsweek’ of China.
And of course, more swimming and the rest of the story!
Records, records and a few disappointments for the US team.
But first this:
The first few days here it seemed as if we pretty much had Olympic Green to ourselves. This appears to be as a result of only a few competitions taking place here--- early in the week. All that changed yesterday and in a big way. People from around the world are arriving here and the village is coming alive. I like it. We discussed the possibility that the Chinese had over estimated things given the sparse nature of the crowds we were seeing (were seeing) and now we know differently. The crowds have arrived. It is great! I suspect that once Track and Field events begin it will be very busy here as the Birds Nest is gigantic and seats around 90 thousand.
(This just in…. turns out the Chinese are now selling non-event tickets that allow you into the Olympic Green but don’t allow you to go see an event. You can visit the displays, buy food ( see below) and souvenirs. I am not sure they are selling them.., but if I had to guess, I’d say they are. Given there are 12 million or so people in the city…. What a great idea!)
It is still true that there are very few Europeans and fewer Americans. When you do run into them (them is us!) they are very likely to be affiliated with a team or parent, sister, brother or athlete. The theme the Chinese are shouting loudly appears to be true.. as “we are one world” rings very true here.
I had lunch today at McDonalds. It is very hard to admit this but quite honestly it is the best food choice available. Actually, it is the only choice available. Well, not quite the only choice.
You can, however, buy self-cooked lunches here. Self- cooked doesn’t mean what it means at home. The consumer does little. The lunch cooks itself. You pull a string on the lower portion of the container and it releases water into a chemical pack. The water begins to superheat through a chemical reaction and rapidly reaches phase change or boiling temperature. Your food cooks while you stand at the food kiosk watching. After ten minutes the ‘meal’ is ready to go…. If it weren’t too hot to pick up. Which it is. So you have to wait ten minutes before you can go anywhere.
What is it? Rice and some kind of chicken…. Uhh… parts. “Chicken parts.” That is the only way to describe the contents. But the meal is hot. “Hot chicken parts.” Perhaps that is the Chinese translation. I suppose I should tell you that when they cut up a chicken here, they don’t bother to remove the bones first? So the “hot chicken parts should maybe be something akin to “Crunchy and hot chicken parts.” And while it sounds bland, I can attest to the fact that it is anything but. To make it edible the manufacturer adds plenty of pepper and other spices. Thus, to be exact (which the Chinese usually are) the meal is more accurately referred to as “ Self-cooked, spicy and crunchy, hot chicken parts.” With rice. I almost forgot. “Self cooked, spicy and crunchy, hot chicken parts with rice.” Steamed white rice. Well, you get the idea. McDonalds is a better option.
And as long as we are on that topic, McDonalds is a major sponsor and thus, as the Chinese Organizer have assured sponsors that there will be no competition in the venue…. Mickie D’s is it. So it really does come down to a Big Mac or “self cooked spicy, and crunchy, hot chicken parts with steamed rice.” No competition there.
I am forced to add some personal commentary here. My friend Pan from China has told me "the Chinese will eat everything with legs except the kitchen table.” “And many more things that don’t have legs.” Menus are long and the variety of food stuffs is amazing. You have to wonder why they would embrace a menu with about a dozen realistic choices… all imported directly from America. America where our children face an epidemic of health concerns related to obesity.
And while on that topic… it is very unusual to see anyone from China overweight and even more uncommon to see anyone who could accurately be referred to as obese. Do you think that there is a connection between American fast food and…. traditional Chinese fare… and obesity? Could be. There are probably other factors as well. But the bottom line is that for now…when out on the streets of Beijing… you see fit and trim locals and very few overweight people--- regardless of age. Someone needs to understand how and or why this is true.
And one more thought on this topic. My mother always encouraged me to finish my dinner because there were “starving children in China..” So mom, I gotta tell you right now, I haven’t seen any. You can rest easy after all these years of worry. And Beijing is a city of over twelve million souls! It is not as if the Chinese government has hidden them all. We see children everywhere we go.
It is true that they have far fewer material belongings than we Americans do. We could all live without about 80% of what we have. True? But that is another issue all together. As far as food goes…. there appears to be plenty of it here. And yet, no rampant obesity. Hmmmm. All these thoughts come while sitting in a McDonalds in BOG Olympic Green among an estimated nine hundred Chinese. I want to hold up a sign that says “be careful of what you wish for!”
On to swimming for just a bit. The onslaught (is that the correct expression?) of world records in swimming is perplexing. Maybe even troubling. The causes and or reasons for the recent multiple records in competitive swimming, however, are of interest to both the general public, swimmers and coaches and the scientific community. Why now? Is it a matter of significantly better talent? How much faster can the records get? Is this really an unusual occurrence and are the records being set at an unprecedented rate? It sure seems so! Are the new records a result of new training techniques or enhanced nutrition? Is the technology associated with the new swims suits or novel pharmacology assisting swimmers in a manner that prior to now did not occur? As usual, the questions are much easier to pose than is the process for finding the correct answers to them. There may, however, be evidence available that helps shed light on this ‘record setting’ observation.
In the past, scholarly interest in the prediction of the boundaries of human performance has largely focused upon performance in running events. Similar to swimming, however, there is very little technology required by the track athlete beyond a pair of shoes. That used to be especially true for swimming. Until now.
In track, as a means to predict performances, initial analyses relied primarily upon linear regression models using prior performances to predict future athletic records. Criticism of this approach include the observation that linear models do not allow for an ‘ultimate limit’ to human performance. Eventually, given enough time, the linear models supposed by several authors predict “humans will run negative world record times”. While this is clearly absurd, linear models of performance do not allow or accept that there may be physiological, anatomical and biomechanical limitations that simply cannot be overcome by better training, more practice or better protoplasm.
Neither do these early linear models take into account improvements in such factors as nutrition, coaching knowledge, sociological and or economic factors that might influence performance (in either direction). Finally, linear models do not account for the fact that the characteristics of the competitors and competition used to generate model may influence the slope of the progression line. If the sport has only recently been introduced, it stands to reason that the rate of improvement will be greater early on as compared with that observed twenty or thirty years later simply as a matter of the sport itself approaching maturity.
For example, analysis of women’s events would suggest that their performances are improving at a greater rate than are the men’s. As a result, linear analysis suggests that eventually, in some events, the women’s records will eclipse those of the men. While not impossible, it is more likely that the relationship is not linear and that with time, the rate of improvement in women’s records will slow and become similar to that seen in the progression of the men’s records.
Human movement in the water, i.e., swimming, in many ways is a more complicated athletic performance to understand than is running. This is due, in part, to our current inability to fully understand and explain the fundamental biomechanics of swimming. Because of the complex nature of the relationships between propulsive forces and resistive forces in the water the mechanisms that allow humans to move at speeds in excess of two meters a second are, as yet, only partially described. Nevertheless, statistical analysis of swim performances can be performed in a manner similar to what has been done in running with the singular reasonable assumption that there is a limit to how fast a human can swim over a set distance.
Have I lost you yet? Yes? Maybe it is the double cheese burger I just ate! Or maybe it was the caffeine in the Coke (another major sponsor) which is said to heighten arousal and enhance brain activity. Hang with me.
Let’s try this: pictures are worth a thousand words, right? So here goes.
Chris Brammer, Dave Tanner and Kosuke Kojima and I have been thinking about this for the last couple weeks. Chris put together for me a couple of graphs to illustrate what is taking place. Figure 1 represents the improvement in swim speed in the men’s 100-meter freestyle when represented as speed (meters per second) as a function of time. The values provided are the average of all of the records set within an Olympiad quadrennial. Thus, for example, although the first person to swim faster than two meters per second for 100 meters did so in 1976 (Jim Montgomery, USA, 1976) the mean value for records during that Olympiad was somewhat less than two meters per second. This relationship can also be represented as simply date vs. event time (in seconds) as shown in Figure 2.
One caveat to any mathematical analysis of swim performance (and subsequent predictions of performance) based upon prior performances, is that undefined and confounding variables may introduce biases into the analysis and potentially perturbs the ability of any subsequent model to be accurate. For example, documented use of performance enhancing pharmacological compounds during the early to mid 1970’s causes an overestimation of the rate of potential improvements in subsequent years. In other words, performances subsequent to this era will appear as if something has caused a slowing of the progression rather than the return to a normal ‘unbiased’ progression after drug usage was curbed by advanced testing or the ability to secure the most effective drugs. As time goes by, however, additional performances will ‘correct’ the model allowing for earlier truly biased performances to be seen. The cause of the temporary perturbations will be speculative, at best, unless reinforced by historical confirmations.
In this regard, modeling performances on past competition might allow insight into one current controversy in competitive swimming. The newly introduced “body suits” pit swimming purists directly against commercial financial interests. The debate centers on the introduction of high technology swim apparel into swim competition. Until recently, the regulatory concern within the competitive swimming community was to enforce the rules that insured enough coverage in a swim suit worn during competition as to be socially acceptable. The newest generation suits eliminate this problem by covering the majority of the skin surface with reputedly ‘low resistance’ fabrics and materials. Due to the nature of commerce and claims of “proprietary” knowledge, very little specific data exists identifying the magnitude (if any) of the effect of these new suits on swim performance. Because of the existent rules in swimming limiting the use of technology to improve performance or alter buoyancy, commercial marketing of these suits is limited to inferences about the improvements in performance rather than any specifics. It is reasoned that the influence of the new high-tech suits can be measured if mathematical models based upon swim performances prior to their introduction are sensitive enough to do so. Interestingly, because none of these new suits existed prior to 2000 and it is possible to document when newer versions have been introduced, the athletes and their performances can be used to test if these suits have introduced unnatural rates of improvement into the sport.
An additional hypothesis might be that the recent attention and financial rewards generated by the Olympic Games might be a catalyst for setting world records in swimming such that not only are more records set during the year prior to the Olympic year but more records are set specifically during the month the Olympic Games (and Olympic Trials) are held. While there are other important competitions in swimming (World Championships, Pan Pacifics, Commonwealth Games, etc), the Olympic Games still represent the pinnacle of public awareness and the greatest opportunity for financial support for the athletes. The bottom line is this: sitting in the stands in the “Water Cube” over the last three days… I can’t remember the number of world records that have been set. Let’s just say a lot. Coach Steen adds ”a whole lot.”
The problem is, we don’t know at this point, who (or what) should be getting credit for these records. Many people are giving Speedo and TYR credit. Others would like to give the athletes and coaches at least some credit. But nobody really knows for sure. It isn’t as if the swimming community sat down and discussed all of this beforehand. There wasn’t any initiative by the swim community to “stimulate excitement by shortening the pool or changing the rules to elevate competition.” Major league baseball did do this a few years ago when they lowered the pitchers mound to help improve batting averages. The result was better hitting and more offense. Fundamentally, that is different from what is taking place in swimming here today. A corporate entity (or two or three) decided it could cash in by circumventing the rules governing the sport. Sure Michael Phelps deserves credit for all of his success. But to what extend are his records aided by Speedo? Is this ’technological doping’ as one Italian coach suggested... or not? The problem is…. We simply don’t know!
More to come later…. as it is time now to attend another Olympic swim extravaganza.! Results will follow. As will more of this story…. A long, long, long story!!
Ok. Back to business. The US women are struggling. Hopefully we will update you on that tomorrow or later today. Soni has done a terrific job so far and looks good going into the last couple days. Beard isn’t going to make it in the 200. Hoff and Zeigler are done in the 800 I think. They did not look good tonight. In this case, it might also be due to the suit. Only it might be a negative rather than a positive one. It could be affecting their body position in the water altering their feel. The Chinese women looked terrific and they swam in simple, traditional swim suits tonight! Ha! The 100 fly was very, very fast and we will be lucky to get two medals here if any at all. The fifty free was even faster. I just don’t see the USA getting anything there. You had to be faster than the standing Olympic record to make into the finals. Yow min. There was no holding back and no coasting in this one. The big conundrum for the USA comes to Phelps or Crocker in the 4 x 100 medley relay. If Crocker sets a record in the 100 fly and wins… how do you choose Phelps for the relay? He did not impress tonight. If Crocker wins but does not set the record….does he still go in the relay? If he does…. it doesn’t matter anyway because Phelps no longer has a shot at eight. But Phelps is swimming well and Crocker…. We’ll see!
Do you know why 8 is such a big deal? It is the best number in China…. Lucky lucky lucky. Hence 8/8/08!
Tomorrow. Downtown Beijing. The markets, the neighborhoods. The Temple of Heaven. The Summer Palace and a two hour interview with the ‘Newsweek’ of China.
And of course, more swimming and the rest of the story!
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