Jim Steen and Joel Stager in article in China's "Newsweek"

2008 Beijing Olympic Games, Swimming Results by the Numbers:

Final Mathematical Analysis

The Olympic men’s swimming events were fast. Nine out of the 13 individual events recorded mean times for the eight finalists that were more than two standard deviations from the predicted values we generated based on previous performances at the Olympics dating back into the 1960s. In several cases the performances were in excess of 5 standard deviations of the projected mean. To put this in context, in the last Olympic Games, 2004 in Athens, the swimmers swam within our predicted range in all events. And, keep in mind, twenty-one world records were set in Beijing as compared to nearly one fifth that many in Athens. No men’s events were slower in 2008 when compared to 2004. The least different event was the 1500 m freestyle.

In the women’s events seven, a little more than half, were two standard deviations or more beyond our predicted values. Nearly all events were faster than in 2004 when compared to 2008 which was not true when the 2004 Games were compared with 2000 in Sydney. The single exception for the women is the 100 breaststroke as times were nearly identical to those recorded in 2004, being only a few hundredths of a second different.

The results of the swimming competition are, in general, exceptionally fast and do not fit the expectations of our mathematical modeling. It would appear that one or more bias has been introduced into the swim competition that did not play a role in determining the performances of the athletes until now. We would conclude that this bias has had a dominant role in enhancing performance in a manner inconsistent with the natural progression of swim performance that has been observed over the last half century.

Men's Events Analyisis

50 m freestyle
The 2008 Beijing Games’ average time for the top eight finalists for the men’s 50 freestyle was 21.57 seconds. This was fast, by any established measure at 4.08 standard deviations faster than our predicted mean time of 22.00 seconds. When compared with the previous 2004 Athens Olympic Games, the 2008 performances were, on average, 0.54 seconds faster (or 2.46%). The gold medalist, Cesar Cielo (21.30 sec, OR, Brazil), had not performed within our confidence interval prior to the Olympic Games and thus (in our opinion) was not expected to have a high probability of winning the gold medal. Both the silver and bronze medalists (silver; Amaury Leveaux, FRA, 21.45 sec; bronze; Alain Bernard, FRA, 21.49 sec) had previously performed within the window of probability we determined and thus were expected to be competitive for a medal. By comparison, the time improvement in swim performance in this event for the finalists between the 2000 and 2004 Games was 0.07 seconds or 0.33%.


100 m freestyle
The 2008 Beijing Olympic Games’ average time for the eight finalists for the men’s 100 freestyle was 47.77 seconds. This average time was 5.38 standard deviations faster than our predicted time of 48.79 seconds and much faster than the expected. When compared to the performances at the previous 2004 Athens Olympic Games, the swimmers at the 2008 Games were, on average, 1.03 seconds faster (2.11%). Three of the four medalists (there was a tie for bronze) had previously swum within our confidence interval with the exception being Cielo. ( Gold: Alain Bernard, FRA, 47.21 sec, Silver: Eamon Sullivan, AUS, 47.32 sec, Bronze: Jason Lezak, USA; Cesar Cielo, BRA, 47.67sec). By comparison, the time improvement in swim performance in this event for the finalists between the 2000 and 2004 Games was 0.14 sec or 0.30%.

200 Freestyle
The 2008 Olympic Games’ average time for the eight finalists of the men’s 200 freestyle was 1:45.81 seconds. This time was 1.25 standard deviations faster than our predicted time of 1:46.61 seconds. When compared with the previous 2004 Athens Olympic Games, the final heat of swimmers in 2008 were, on average, 0.68 seconds faster. Phelps (gold: 1:42.96 sec) and Vanderkaay (bronze: 1:45.14 sec) were expected to contend and had performed within the established confidence interval but South Korea’s Park (silver: 1:44.85 sec) had not. By comparison, the time improvement in swim performance in this event for the finalists between the 2000 and 2004 Games was 0.94 sec or 0.88%.

400 meter Freestyle
The 2008 Beijing Olympic Games’ average time for the eight finalists in the men’s 400 freestyle was 3:43.72 seconds. This was 1.11 standard deviations faster than our predicted time of 3:45.09 seconds. When compared with the previous 2004 Olympic Games, 2008 the finalists were, on average, 2.20 seconds faster. None of the medalists (Gold: Taehwan Park, KOR, 3:41.86 sec; Silver: Lin Zhang, CHN, 3:42.44 sec) had previously performed within our established confidence interval although Larsen Jensen (bronze: 3:42.78 sec AR) finished fourth in this event in Athens. We should note here that not “all previous performances” may be available in the public domain. It is an assumption, on our part, that we are able to obtain all performances on record worldwide. By comparison, the time improvement in swim performance in this event for the finalists between the 2000 and 2004 Games was 0.30 sec or 0.13%.

1500 m freestyle
The 2008 Beijing Olympic Games’ average time for the eight finalists of the men’s 1500 m freestyle was 14:48.61 seconds. This was 0.76 standard deviations faster than our predicted mean time of 14:54.18 seconds. When compared with the previous Olympic Games, 2008teh performances were, on average, 9.44 seconds faster. Hackett (Silver: AUS, 14:41.53 sec) was predicted to be the lone contender and finished with a silver medal. Mellouli (gold TUN, 14:40.84 sec) and Cochrane (bronze, CAN, 14:42.69 sec) were not previously known to have performed within our confidence interval. By comparison, the time improvement in swim performance in this event for the finalists between the 2000 and 2004 Games was 3.62 sec or 0.40%.

100 m Backstroke
The 2008 Beijing Olympic Games’ average time for the men’s eight finalists in the 100 backstroke was 53.28 seconds. This was 3.21 standard deviations faster than our predicted time of 54.50 seconds. When compared with the previous 2004 Athens Olympic Games, 2008 was, on average, 1.24 seconds faster. All three medalists (Gold: Aaron Peirsol, USA, 52.54; Silver: Matt Grevers, USA, 53.11; Bronze: Arkady Vyatchanin, RUS and Hayden Stoeckel, AUS, 53.18) were predicted to contend for medals. By comparison, the time improvement in swim performance in this event for the finalists between the 2000 and 2004 Games was 0.33 sec or 0.60%.

200 m Backstroke
The 2008 Beijing Olympic Games’ average time for the eight men’s finalists in the 200 backstroke was1:55.54 seconds. This time was 3.22 standard deviations faster than our predicted average time of 1:58.31 seconds. When compared with the previous Olympic Games, the swimmers in 2008 were, on average, 2.44 seconds faster. All three medalists were predicted to contend. (Gold: Ryan Lochte, USA, 1:53.94 sec,(WR), Silver: Aaron Peirsol, USA, 1:54.33 sec, Bronze: Arkady Vyatchanin, 1:54.93 sec). By comparison, the time improvement in swim performance in this event for the finalists between the 2000 and 2004 Games was 0.44 sec or 0.38 %.

100 m breastroke
The 2008 Beijing Olympic average time for the eight men’s finalists in the 100 breaststroke was 59.64 seconds. This was 4.70 standard deviations faster than our predicted time of 1:00.91 seconds. When compared with the previous Olympic Games, 2008 was, on average, 1.51 seconds faster. All three medalists were expected to contend. (Gold: Kosuke Kitajima, JPN, 58.91 sec, Silver: Dael Oen, NOR, 59.20 sec, Bronze: Hugues DuBoscq, FRA, 59.37 sec). By comparison, the time improvement in swim performance in this event for the finalists between the 2000 and 2004 Games was 0.11 sec or 0.18%.

200 m breastroke
The 2008 Beijing Olympic average time for the eight men’s finalists in the 200 breaststroke was 2:09.44 seconds. This was 2.13 standard deviations faster than our predicted time of 2:11.34 seconds. When compared with the previous 2004 Athens Olympic Games, 2008 was, on average, 1.70 seconds faster. Kitajima was predicted to be the lone contender and finished with gold. Rickard (silver) and Dubosq (bronze) were not previously within our confidence interval. (Gold: Kosuke Kitajima, JPN, 2:07.64 sec (OR), Silver: Brenton Rickard, AUS, 2:08.88 sec, Bronze: Hugues DuBoscq, FRA, 2:08.94 sec). By comparison, the time improvement in swim performance in this event for the finalists between the 2000 and 2004 Games was 1.71 sec or 1.29%.

100 m butterfly
The 2008 Beijing Olympic average time for the eight men’s finalists in the 100 butterfly was 51.23 seconds. This was 3.03 standard deviations faster than our predicted time of 52.38 seconds. When compared with the previous Olympic Games, 2008 was, on average, 0.75 seconds faster. Cavic (silver, SRB, 50.59 sec) was not previously within our confidence interval. (Gold: Michael Phelps, USA, 50.58 sec (OR), Bronze: Andrew Lauterstein, AUS, 51.12 sec). By comparison, the time improvement in swim performance in this event for the finalists between the 2000 and 2004 Games was 0.55 sec or 1.05%.

200 m butterfly
The 2008 Beijing Olympic average time for the eight men’s finalists 200 butterfly was 1:53.86 seconds. This was 3.21 standard deviations faster than our predicted time of 1:56.33 seconds. When compared with the previous Olympic Games, 2008 was, on average, 2.03 seconds faster. Lazslo Cseh (silver) was not previously within our confidence interval. (Gold: Michael Phelps, USA, 1:52.03 sec (WR), Silver: Laszlo Cseh, HUN, 1:52.70 sec, Bronze: Takeshi Matsuda, JPN, 1:52.97 sec. By comparison, the time improvement in swim performance in this event for the finalists between the 2000 and 2004 Games was 0.08 sec or 0.68%.

200 m Individual Medley
The 2008 Beijing Olympic average time for the eight men’s finalists in the 200 individual medley was 1:57.88 seconds. This was 4.55 standard deviations faster than our predicted time of 2:00.02 seconds. When compared with the previous Olympic Games, 2008 was, on average, 1.83 seconds faster. All three medalists were expected to contend (Gold: Michael Phelps, USA, 1:54.23 sec, (WR), Silver: Laszlo Cseh, HUN, 1:56.52 sec, Bronze: Ryan Lochte, USA, 1:56.53). By comparison, the time improvement in swim performance in this event for the finalists between the 2000 and 2004 Games was 1.41 sec or 1.17%.

400 m Individual Medley
The 2008 Beijing Olympic average time for the eight men’s finalists in the 400 individual medley was 4:10.54 seconds. This was 5.23 standard deviations faster than our predicted time of 4:13.99 seconds. When compared with the previous 2004 Olympic Games, finalists in the 2008 Games were, on average, 4.17 seconds faster. All three medalists were expected to contend (Gold: Michael Phelps, USA, 4:03.84 (WR), Silver: Laszlo Cseh, HUN, 4:06.16, Bronze: Ryan Lochte, USA, 4:08.09). By comparison, the time improvement in swim performance in this event for the finalists between the 2000 and 2004 Games was 2.03 sec or 0.79%.


Women’s Events Analysis

50 m freestyle
The 2008 Beijing Olympic Games’ average time for the eight finalists in the women’s 50 m freestyle was 24.36 seconds. This was 4.78 standard deviations faster than our predicted time of 24.79 seconds. When compared with the previous 2004 Athens Olympic Games, 2008 was, on average, 0.60 seconds faster. All three medalists (Gold: Britta Steffen, GER, 24.06 sec (OR); Silver: Dara Torres, USA, 24.07 sec (AR); Bronze: Cate Campbell, AUS, 24.17 sec) were expected to contend by our estimates. By comparison, the time improvement in swim performance in this event for the finalists between the 2000 and 2004 Games was 0.05 sec or 0.21%.

100 m freestyle
The 2008 Beijing Olympic Games’ average time for the eight finalists in the women’s 100 freestyle was 53.80 seconds. This was 2.20 standard deviations faster than our predicted time of 54.46 seconds. When compared with the previous Olympic Games, 2008 was, on average, 0.78 seconds faster. All three medalists (Gold: Britta Steffen, GER, 53.12 sec (OR); Silver: Libby Trickett, AUS, 53.16 sec; Bronze: Natalie Coughlin, USA, 53.39 sec (AR) ) were expected to contend. By comparison, the time improvement in swim performance in this event for the finalists between the 2000 and 2004 Games was 0.18 sec or 0.33%.

200 m freestyle
The 2008 Beijing Olympic Games’ average time for the eight finalists in the women’s 200 freestyle was 1:56.35 seconds. This was 2.98 standard deviations faster than our predicted time of 1:58.08 seconds. When compared with the previous Olympic Games, 2008 was, on average, 2.34 seconds faster. Isakovic (silver) and Pang (bronze) were not previously within our confidence interval. (Gold: Federica Pellegrini, ITA, 1:54.82 sec. (WR) Silver: Sara Isakovic, SLO, 1:54.97 sec; Bronze: Jiaying Pang, CHN, 1:55.05 sec.) By comparison, the time improvement in swim performance in this event for the finalists between the 2000 and 2004 Games was 0.23 sec or 0.19%.

400 m freestyle
The 2008 Beijing Olympic Games’ average time for the eight finalists in the women’s 400 freestyle was 4:04.90 seconds. This was 1.28 standard deviations faster than our predicted time of 4:07.02 seconds. When compared with the previous Olympic Games, the 2008 finalists were, on average, 3.15 seconds faster. Adlington (gold, GBR, 4:03.22 sec) and Jackson (bronze, GBR, 4:03.52 sec) were not previously within our confidence interval. Silver: Katie Hoff, USA, 4:03.29 sec, however, was. By comparison, the time improvement in swim performance in this event for the finalists between the Sydney 2000 and Athens 2004 Games was 1.41 sec or 0.57%.

800 m freestyle
This year’s average of the women’s 800 freestyle was 8:24.42 seconds. This was 0.46 standard deviations faster than our predicted time of 8:25.93 seconds. When compared with the previous Olympic Games, 2008 was, on average, 4.64 seconds faster. Fris (bronze) was not previously within our confidence interval. Gold: Rebecca Adlington, GBR, 8:14.10 sec (WR) and Silver: Alessia Filippi, ITA, 8:20.23 sec, however, were.
By comparison, the time decrease in swim performance in this event for the finalists between the 2000 and 2004 Games was (actually negative or slower than 2000) -1.24 sec or -0.24%.

100 m backstroke
The 2008 Beijing Olympic Games’ average time for the eight finalists in the women’s 100 backstroke was 59.53 seconds. This was 3.83 standard deviations faster than our predicted time of 1:00.87 seconds. When compared with the previous Olympic Games, 2008 was, on average, 1.54 seconds faster. All three medalists (Gold: Natalie Coughlin, USA, 58.96 sec; Silver: Kirsty Coventry, ZIM, 59.19 sec; and Bronze: Margaret Hoelzer, USA, 59.34) were expected to contend. By comparison, the time improvement in swim performance in this event for the finalists between the 2000 and 2004 Games was 0.05 sec or 0.08%.

200 m backstroke
The 2008 Beijing Olympic Games’ average time for the eight finalists in the women’s 200 backstroke was 2:07.77 seconds. This was 2.10 standard deviations faster than our predicted time of 2:09.91 seconds. When compared with the previous Olympic Games, 2008 was, on average, 2.92 seconds faster. Nakamura (bronze; JPN, 2:07.13 sec) was not previously within our confidence interval. Gold: Kirsty Coventry, ZIM, 2:05.24 sec (WR) and Silver: Margaret Hoelzer, USA, 2:06.23 were supposed to contend. By comparison, the time improvement in swim performance in this event for the finalists between the 2000 and 2004 Games was 1.02 sec or 0.77%.

100 m breastroke
The 2008 Beijing Olympic Games’ average time for the eight finalists in the women’s 100 breaststroke was 1:07.30 seconds. This was 0.06 standard deviations faster than our predicted time of 1:07.32 seconds. When compared with the previous Olympic Games, 2008 was, on average, 0.09 seconds faster. Soni (silver; USA, 1:06.73 sec) and Jukic (bronze; AUT, 1:07.34) were not previously within our confidence interval. Gold: Leisel Jones, AUS, 1:05.17 however, was. By comparison, the time improvement in swim performance in this event for the finalists between the 2000 and 2004 Games was 0.78 sec or 1.15%.

200 m breastroke
The 2008 Beijing Olympic Games’ average time for the eight finalists in the women’s 200 breaststroke was 2:23.30 seconds. This was 1.44 standard deviations faster than our predicted time of 2:24.51 seconds. When compared with the previous Olympic Games, 2008 was, on average, 2.19 seconds faster. Nordenstam (bronze, NOR, 2:23.02 sec) was not previously within our confidence interval. Gold: Rebecca Soni, USA, 2:20.22 sec (WR) and Silver: Leisel Jones AUS, 2:22.05 sec, however, were. By comparison, the time improvement in swim performance in this event for the finalists between the 2000 and 2004 Games was 0.15 sec or 0.11%.

100 m butterfly
The 2008 Beijing Olympic Games’ average time for the eight finalists in the women’s 100 butterfly was 57.70 seconds. This was 1.81 standard deviations faster than our predicted time of 58.57 seconds. When compared with the previous Olympic Games, 2008 was, on average, 0.84 seconds faster. All three medalists (Gold: Lisbeth Trickett, AUS, 56.73 sec; Silver: Christine Magnuson, USA, 57.10 sec. Bronze: Jessica Schipper, AUS, 57.25 sec were expected to contend. By comparison, the time improvement in swim performance in this event for the finalists between the 2000 and 2004 Games was - 0.06 sec or -0.11% ( slower than 2000).

200 m butterfly
The 2008 Beijing Olympic Games’ average time for the eight finalists in the women’s 200 butterfly was 2:06.58 seconds. This was 2.21 standard deviations faster than our predicted time of 2:08.15 seconds. When compared with the previous Olympic Games, 2008 was, on average, 2.00 seconds faster. Liu (gold, CHN, 2:04.18 sec (WR)) and Jiao (silver, CHN, 2:04.72 sec) were not previously within our confidence interval. Bronze: Jessicah Schipper, AUS, 2:06.26, however, was. By comparison, the time improvement in swim performance in this event for the finalists between the 2000 and 2004 Games was 0.39 sec or 0.31% (slower than 2000).

200 m Individual Medley
The 2008 Beijing Olympic Games’ average time for the eight finalists in the women’s 200 individual medley was 2:10.86 seconds. This was 4.48 standard deviations faster than our predicted time of 2:12.74 seconds. When compared with the previous Olympic Games, 2008 was, on average, 2.38 seconds faster. All three medalists were expected to contend (Gold: Stephanie Rice, AUS, 2:08.45 (WR), Silver: Kirsty Coventry, ZIM, 2:08.59 sec, Bronze: Natalie Coughlin, USA, 2:10.34 sec). By comparison, the time improvement in swim performance in this event for the finalists between the 2000 and 2004 Games was 0.26 sec or 0.20%.

400 m Individual medley
The 2008 Beijing Olympic Games’ average time for the eight finalists in the women’s 400 individual medley was 4:35.16 seconds. This was 1.14 standard deviations faster than our predicted time of 4:37.97 seconds. When compared with the previous Olympic Games, 2008 was, on average, 5.84 seconds faster. Coventry (silver; ZIM, 4:29.89 sec) was not previously within our confidence interval. Gold: Stephanie Rice, AUS, 4:29.45 sec (WR) and Bronze: Katie Hoff, USA, 4:31.71sec, however, were. By comparison, the time improvement in swim performance in this event for the finalists between the 2000 and 2004 Games was -0.16 sec or 0.06%.

Recent articles featuring Counsilman Center Research on Swimming

http://www.nytimes.com/2008/08/21/fashion/21fitness.html

Aging swimmer gives hope for the rest of us
41-year-old Dara Torres partly reflects advances in training, experts say

CHICAGO - Dara Torres jokes that she had trouble reading the scoreboard after winning the first of two events at the Olympic swimming trials.
Her eyes just might be the only part of her body showing some age.
At 41, Torres is heading for her fifth Olympics — despite taking several years off, giving birth just two years ago and undergoing two surgeries within the past eight months.

Her remarkable feat has left armchair athletes doing a double-take. But exercise experts say Torres' success at least partly reflects advances in training — and that many of us could come closer to similar achievements than we think.

True, genetic makeup certainly has helped Torres compete at an elite level so relatively late in life. As Dr. Kathy Weber, director of women's sports medicine at Chicago's Rush University Medical Center, puts it, she has the right "protoplasm."

She also has three other key advantages — opportunity, motivation and incentive to train hard, said exercise physiologist Joel Stager, who directs a science of swimming program at Indiana University.

And those things aren't impossible to achieve, as Torres has demonstrated.
"It shows us what we can do," Stager said. "It's just that most of us don't."

Torres qualified for the Olympics by beating swimmers nearly half her age in the 100-meter freestyle Friday, then set an American record Sunday in the 50-meter freestyle trials.
Lots of resistance trainingMost of the other swimmers on the U.S. women's team were born after Torres first competed in the Olympics, at the Los Angeles Games of 1984. The youngest, Elizabeth Beisel, was born shortly after the Barcelona Games of 1992, Torres' third Olympics.
Torres' regimen includes lots of resistance training — repetitive exercises using external force to push against muscles to make them stronger and increase their endurance.

This includes weight machines, free weights, and the type of simple floor exercises Torres does several times weekly: Lying on her back, she lifts and stretches each leg while also pushing against it with her arm.

These exercises also work to strengthen "core" muscles in the abdomen and back, which gives arms and legs "a better platform to work from," said Carl Foster, former president of the American College of Sports Medicine.

Core exercises are a relatively recent trend in sports medicine, reflecting a better understanding of how to improve training to prevent injury, said Foster, a professor at the University of Wisconsin in LaCrosse.

Improving performance after 40For athletes at any level, a gradual decline in endurance and speed occurs in the 30s and 40s, roughly half a percent a year, Stager said. And even that's with continued training.

While it would be virtually impossible for novice athletes to start rigorous training in their 30s and expect to reach Olympic level by their 40s, healthy people can significantly improve their athletic performance with the kinds of exercises Torres does, doctors say.

The key is to avoid overtraining, and to take time to warm up and cool down, Weber said.
Torres' training has helped her fight the typical slow decline in muscle mass that usually begins in the 30s, and given her sculpted arms and rock-hard abs that would make any 20-year-old jealous.

Dr. Andrew Gregory, a Vanderbilt University sports medicine specialist, noted her appearance has prompted doping speculation in some circles. Tests against some drugs aren't foolproof, so Torres' record of negative tests and strong denials won't be enough for some people. Nor will her offer to take a lie detector test.

But she has been a great swimmer for so long that doping seems more unlikely than for many athletes, said Dr. Walter Lowe, sports medicine director at the Baylor College of Medicine.
Torres has retired twice from competitive swimming, gave birth in 2006, and was briefly sidelined by shoulder and knee operations, early this year and in late 2007.

While other people might view these as good excuses for slowing down, doctors say it's not surprising Torres was able to bounce back quickly, given her years of training.

Stager said he has worked with Masters swimming, a national competitive program for amateur adult swimmers of all ages. Participants typically swim nearly every day of the week, and often look decades younger than their years, he said.

Torres "is a benchmark" for that kind of dedication, and she shows that devotion to exercise can help redefine aging, Stager said.

Copyright 2008 The Associated Press. All rights reserved. This material may not be published, broadcast, rewritten or redistributed.


From YubaNet.com
LifeHigh-tech Swimsuits: Hype Or Expensive Performance Enhancers?
Author: Indiana UniversityPublished on Aug 8, 2008 - 8:42:13 AM

Aug. 7, 2008 - For Olympic champions, their swim times boil down to years of dedication, hard work and sacrifice. For exercise physiologists and swimming experts at Indiana University, it's a matter of statistics.These researchers can successfully predict winning swim times based on previous years' performances, drawing attention to when anything other than chance -- such as doping or high technology swim suits -- gives athletes a boost.

Eight years ago, when the first generation of bodysuits was introduced prior to the Olympics, swim time predictions by researchers at IU's Counsilman Center for the Science of Swimming were so accurate that researchers concluded the suits had no impact on swim times. In Beijing, it could be a different story. At the U.S. trials in June, Counsilman Center researchers called all but two of the women's individual races but accurately predicted only one of the men's races."The men swam faster than expected," said Joel Stager, director of the Counsilman Center and a professor of exercise physiology. "Something not taken into account in previous races contributed to the performances."

If the high-tech swimsuits alter buoyancy, it would make a bigger impact with men because women generally are more buoyant, he said. Or, because men swim faster than women, the effect of lowering drag might also be more obvious.Stager said the majority of the swim coaching community is in favor of banning high-tech swim suits in age-group competition. The swimsuits' high cost raises equity issues, places an extra financial burden on athletes and swimming programs (swimming is not a revenue-generating sport) and could represent a major change to the sport -- and one introduced by business interests. Stager notes that Olympians do not pay for their suits."The issue is half a million swimmers feeling forced into purchasing $500-plus swimsuits in order to be competitive," said Stager, a coach and United States Masters Swimming champion. "Everything is based on impression."Stager said athletes report the new bodysuits last for only six to eight races."If all athletes are wearing these new suits, then what's the point?" Stager said. "All we have done is artificially elevate performances across the board. The new suits are only effective if only 'some' athletes have access to them."

International rules that govern swimming prohibit the use of equipment (or rather, "devices") that improves performance or increases buoyancy, which is why swimmers do not compete using such training devices as fins, paddles or neoprene wet suits. Since Speedo introduced its new LZR bodysuit earlier this year, dozens of world records have been set. Normally, around 10 world records are set in a given year.*

Over time, swim times improve in smaller increments as swimmers approach a theoretical limit to human performance. The top eight swimmers in the men's 50-meter freestyle in the 2004 Olympics, for example, swam .08 seconds faster than their peers in the 2000 Olympics. This represents a .3 percent improvement. The mere nature of water also makes incremental improvements more challenging. The IU researchers say resistive forces caused by the water increase exponentially with an increase in swim speed. Thus, to swim a little faster (at high speeds) becomes more difficult because propulsive forces must increase exponentially to mirror the exponential increase in resistive forces of the water. "If the suits make a 10 percent, or even a 2 percent difference, as predicted by the manufacturer, it's phenomenally fast when compared to annual improvements of much less than 1 percent," Stager said. "What this forces you to do is to start asking, how fast would Mark Spitz have gone in 1972, how fast would Jim Montgomery have gone in 1976, if they would have had one of these suits? It places all the previous records sort of out of context."

© Copyright YubaNet.com


The Lycra Swimsuit That's Worth Its Weight in Gold
A first-hand test of the tech that revolutionized swimming.
published online June 17, 2008


discover_maga7:http://discovermagazine.com/2008/jun/17-the-lycra-swimsuit-thats-worth-its-weight-in-gold


On a Saturday at 7 a.m. at a gym in Briarcliff Manor, New York, Henry Donahue, DISCOVER’s CEO and a recreational triathlete, was struggling to suit up for his regular swim. Although the Tracer Light—TYR’s new swimwear for the 2008 Beijing Olympics—screamed “speed” in sleek brown and green lines, Donahue was taking more than a little time squeezing himself into it.
After some help with zipping his shoulders into the skintight, shoulder-to-ankle racing suit, Donahue walked to the pool looking like a capeless superhero—or a guy in a sleeveless, lightweight wet suit. “I don’t think it’s that cold in there,” the lifeguard said.

Cold is not the enemy. Drag is. Tracer Light’s tight fit is intended to rein in body parts such as breasts and buttocks that wobble in the water and increase resistance. “Nothing is wiggling,” Donahue confirmed. TYR says the girdlelike garment streamlines the swimmer better than a full-body shave.

Athletes sometimes compress their bodies during a workout to decrease recovery time, but TYR’s secondary goal (after undulation elimination) is to “maximize oxygenation…for optimum performance.” How exactly does squeezing make you swim faster? I asked physiologist Joel Stager, who studies oxygen transport during exercise and directs the Counsilman Center for the Science of Swimming at Indiana University at Bloomington. He couldn’t give a direct answer, although he had done a bit of research. “When I started asking around about this, nobody had ever heard of it. I called up a guy who had just finished a textbook on muscle physiology and the guy was like, ‘What?’” Stager said. “Show me the data!”

OK, our weekend trial won’t give Stager the science he’s looking for, but Donahue does take product testing seriously. He got up at the same time and ate the same breakfast as he had for his baseline test the previous weekend. He couldn’t wait to blow himself out of the water. I stood by with a Timex Ironman stopwatch as Donahue jumped into the pool to start his warm-up.
A length or two in, he said it felt like he was floating higher than normal—and if he’s right, something’s wrong. Suits that enhance buoyancy are forbidden in swimming competition by the Fédération Internationale de Natation (FINA), the same spoilsports who banned streamlined helmets and webbed gloves. The new “performance” wear—both the Tracer Light ($80 to $320) and Speedo’s offering in the category, the LZR Racer ($290 to $550)—did receive FINA approval, though the uproar surrounding some recently broken world records may make the regulators change their minds (or their procedures).

TYR and Speedo have to be careful about the claims they make: They say the suits reduce drag, and they hope buyers will take that to mean faster times. Between measuring frictional properties of potential fabrics in NASA wind tunnels and modeling the fluid dynamics of jiggling flesh, the manufacturers have definitely created some hydrodynamic suits. They just don’t test them for racing speed.

It is certainly possible that swimsuit science could shave off a fraction of a second, the margin by which high-level races are won. Donahue’s gains, however, were not so subtle. When he touched the wall at the end of his sprints, our positive thinker had dropped a full 15 seconds from his 400 and 6.4 seconds from his 100. A recent study found that expensive placebos work better than identical cheap ones. Looks like when it comes to psyching yourself up with swimwear, you get what you pay for.

– DISCOVER reporter Jennifer Barone


Aiming for the Olympics, Regardless of Age
July 03, 2008 01:27 PM ET
Katherine Hobson Permanent Link

I recently wrote a friend that if I never beat my personal best time in an Ironman triathlon, set in 2005, I'll be fine with it. But after reading in the New York Times Magazine about Dara Torres, the 41-year-old swimmer who this week is competing to go to her fifth Olympic Games, I'm thinking I shouldn't give up on my 36-year-old self quite yet. Torres has a superb chance of making the team and winning a medal in Beijing. And she's not even the oldest athlete at the Olympic swimming trials; Susan von der Lippe is 42. At the track and field trials, pole vaulter Jeff Hartwig has already made the Olympic team, at 40. I called Indiana University kinesiologist Joel Stager, who was quoted in the NYT Magazine article, to chat more about the issue of age and performance. (He knows of which he speaks; the 55-year-old swimmer is the fastest 50- and 100-meter freestyler age 55 to 59 in the United States. With his 100-meter time of about a minute flat, he regularly beats high schoolers.)

What physical changes affect athletic performance as someone ages?

When you compare [older folks] to people who are inactive, they look the same: a gradual loss of muscle mass and a loss of central nervous system activity. But the things we used to think were aging-related may be more related to that lack of activity [that occurs as most of us age]. I don't know that we have the answers to what happens when someone maintains a high level of activity; Dara is running the experiment for us. People tend to curtail their activity as they age, a phenomenon called hypokinesis.

Is that a natural progression?

Researchers have done this with mice and logged their activity on wheels, and basically that showed us that as the animals got older, their activity minutes declined over time. Humans fortunately have the ability to override that. The average participation in U.S. Masters Swimming [the governing body for adult swimmers] is 17½ years. And on the average, masters swimmers train four to five days a week. So what we can talk about in exercise physiology is volitional activity: We can get up off the couch and go run.

Is the usual slowdown necessary?

I don't think so. My grandfather was still farming at age 80. But in today's world, it may be unusual. Hypokinesis may be a natural phenomenon, but we have control over it.

And what about performing at an incredibly high level, like Torres?

She has the opportunity, the incentive, and the motivation. It's absolutely terrific. But we don't have a lot of people who have maintained their activity patterns and training as they did in their 20s. She took many years off before coming back.

Is that kind of a break advisable?

I'd rather see someone be consistent and persistent than skip a week or take a year off. I can make an excuse every day for why I don't want to get in the water, but I tell myself that I can just do 1,000 yards because tomorrow I may not be able to get to the pool. And exercise does other things: helps mood issues, improves blood pressure, and, needless to say, burns calories.
Torres is a sprinter.

But aren't older athletes supposed to be better at endurance events?

It's a little confusing. There are some physiological variables that tend to favor endurance, like changes to muscle mass that may encourage endurance rather than power. But the other side of the coin is that as a sprinter she can get away with less training [in the pool] and do other exercises that benefit her performance. The other thing is that she's not putting a lot of pressure on her ankles, knees, hips and spine; you're not working against gravity when you're swimming.

How does training have to change as one gets older?

I can't train at the same load as I did 20 years ago. What becomes really hard is the recovery. A lot of the older athletes find out that when you go beyond a certain training load, it's pretty hard to go on with the rest of your day. Difficult workouts are catabolic—they break down the body—and provoke an immunological response. Recovery from one can take not hours but days.

What else can older athletes do?

Pay attention to nutrition and make intelligent decisions to aid recovery. Getting out of the pool and grabbing a diet soda is probably not the best thing to do. But old muscle responds the same way that young muscle does to physical training. The point is, you have to do it.

There you have it from Dr. Stager.



Chocolate Milk Does a Body Good
Published June 9, 2008

Chocolate milk is just about the best thing an endurance athlete can drink after a hard workout.
Forget the fancy packaging and multi-syllabic scientific terms that are used to describe the nutrition benefits of expensive powders, gels, and other liquid concoctions found at General Nutrition Stores. Muscle Milk and its similar-marketed cousins of the “endurance fuel” family have nothing on moo milk and Hershey’s syrup. Seriously.

With the increasing demand and use of protein and carbohydrate drinks aimed at the hard-core athlete, the New York Times published comments from an un-scientific taste and performance test of leading post-activity sports drinks designed to optimize recovery. In “Gear Test: How About a Spin and Tonic?“, Gatorade Protein Recovery Shake, Met-Rx RTD, EAS Myoplex Read-to-Drink, Powerbar Recovery, and Cytopsorts Recovery Drink were sampled.

I could not help but notice how expensive all these drinks were. And the image of chugging any of these drinks after a workout brought to mind a picture of a mechanic topping-off the fluids in a race car after a hard drive. It seems as if the marketing of these products appeal to an idea in our head of our bodies as machines that need to be re-fueled with fancy chains of lab-designed amino acids, carbs, and proteins.

Then I remembered of hearing an anecdote that Michael Phelps drinks Carnation Instant Breakfast between races. For Michael Jordan, “It’s gotta’ be the shoes!” For this Michael, maybe, “It’s gotta be the milk!”

In 2006, the International Journal of Sport Nutrition and Exercise Metabolism published a study conducted at Indiana University that found:

Chocolate milk contains an optimal carbohydrate to protein ratio, which is critical for helping refuel tired muscles after strenuous exercise and can enable athletes to exercise at a high intensity during subsequent workouts. It is a strong alternative to other commercial sports drinks in helping athletes recover from strenuous, energy-depleting exercise. (Source.)
How effective? Co-author Joel Stager says, “Chocolate milk was nearly twice as effective than the synthetic products [such as those taste-tested by the NYT] as a recovery product.”

“The researchers found that cyclists who drank chocolate milk during the rest period were able to bike nearly twice as long before reaching exhaustion than those who consumed the carbohydrate replacement drink.”

Bonus: “And the athletes liked the taste a lot better.”
Double bonus: Chocolate milk is relatively inexpensive, especially when compared to the $3-4 cost of a single-serving of Muscle Milk.

What is so great about chocolate milk? And what about that sugar? That can’t be good for you, can it? Well…
Chocolate milk has the ideal ratio of carbohydrates to proteins — 3 or 4 grams of carbs to 1 gram of protein — for optimal post-exercise recovery. Regular milk does not have this same ratio.
It’s not just the ratio of carbohydrates to proteins that makes a difference. There seems to be something special about milk itself that cannot be replicated in the lab. “Endurox, which has the same carb-to-protein ratio as chocolate milk, fared poorly” in the study.

What gives? One researcher supposes that “It may have to do with the different composition of the sugars in the milk. The sugars in the milk may be better absorbed in the gut than those in the Endurox.”

Whatever the reason, Mother Nature and Hershey’s know what’s best. Pass me some milk and chocolate syrup!

Warmups at the Olympics

Joel and Coach Jim Steen

Bird's Nest at Night

The Summer Palace

Old Meets New

Day Ten

Beijing, China. Friday, August 15th 2008.

Outside the Water Cube and on ‘the strip’ in Beijing near the Forbidden City.

That this is an amazing structure is to be understated. It has a steel frame to which is attached a lattice of heavy transparent plastic “pillows ” or bubble. Each bubble contains a battery of multicolored lights wired to a terminal that allows a computer program to choose which color is to be displayed at any given moment. In the evening the programmer sends various messages to the exterior walls, most of which are in Chinese. The messages are essential “Welcome” and “One world.”

You can touch the bubbles from the inside, although you are risking being sent to Mongolia to work on building a highway if you do! Because wondering minds “want to know” I felt obligated to give it a careful finger…or two. My impression is that it is definitely pressurized and my fear is that like anything of this sort, it will not be pressurized indefinitely. I can identify a number of patches where probing fingers may have been a little too probing. There are a lot of highways to build for the developing Chinese I guess.

The lower ground level consists of a wall of glass that has water being pumped to the top of each pane allowing the water to run down along the glass into reflecting pools at your feet. This exists inside as well as 1/3 of the way along the outside. It is quite dramatic at night as the reflecting pond do their job quite well and produce an illusion of a much bigger structure than it actually is. For spectator safety, the pools are about three inches deep. More probing fingers.
The ceiling over the pool also consists of these bubbles and in this case they are translucent. As a result, the pool is lighted largely by the sun and it works very well as you can tell from the television images. Looks kinda cool too!

Between the competition pool and warm-up and warm-down pools there is a “lobby” of sorts accessible from the ground level. Both of these pools actually sit below ground level and perpendicular to each other. There is a 50 meter glass window that allows you to watch the coaches and swimmers preparing for their races.

Many athletes are not able to communicate with their coaches because the coaches do not have clearance. Another way of looking at this is: many coaches are not able to communicate with their athletes. This is because security allows few coaches (and team officials) representing any given country actual access into competitive areas. This has created a situation whereby coaches are “miming” instructions to their athletes through the glass and down on the non-competition pool using hand signals to provide feedback and further instructions. Despite the obstacle, it seems quite effective.

As you have may have read, Dara Torres travels with quite an entourage. When she is preparing to swim (and then recovering from her swim) she does not have the ability to access ‘Team Dara.’ And so…. Dara exits the competition arena and has a complete staff set up in this glass hallway. Her routine is there for all to witness (and many to film). I personally felt a little weird about filming this routine. But I will describe it briefly. There is much grunting and groaning and if I am completely honest… the groaning appears genuine and appropriate. What her ‘handlers’ do to her looks and sounds like it hurts. A lot. To quote Coach Steen again “A whole lot! It apparently works for her. There is a lot of limb twisting and flesh pounding and lots of walking on body parts. It has been written in the NY Times that she pays a small fortune for the privilege. I can’t help but thinking that there are many swim fans that would do this for free. But of course… they wouldn’t be trained professionals now would they?
Dara has to be admired for the way she has performed and behaved. Not that a forty-one year-old shouldn’t know how to behave! But I know many fifty-somethings who don’t seem to know how to behave! And I bet you do too. But watching her behavior towards the other athletes ( and their response towards her) … warm and supportive… is really pretty impressive. She always seems to be able to smile and she always seems to have something nice to say. Interviews that I have seen seem genuine and candid. She doesn’t seem to obsess and seems simply happy for the experience. The other swimmers clearly are in awe. Heck, I am in awe. Again, pretty cool!

When you think about it for a for a bit, Dara entered the national/international scene at age sixteen years. Given that fact, it is true that she was swimming at this level before nearly all of her competitors here were born. Think about that for a moment. This might be the secret behind her ability to smile and “enjoy the moment.” It could also be that she has a two year old to share this with somewhere down the road.

I have been asked to comment about Dara’s success repeatedly as some of our recent research effort has been directed towards older athletes. “Is her performance remarkable? Could other older athletes achieve similar success? What makes Dara different? And of course… the cynical “is she doping?” My answers are always positive and supportive. To “is this remarkable?” I reply “ I don’t know!” And I really don’t. Mainly this is because few athletes at her age have made the attempt. There really isn’t much data that would suggest that what Dara is doing is impossible. Most research suggests that there are declines in physiological markers of aging that begin to show decrements in the mid-thirties. But you have to consider that most of this is cross sectional data and that it doesn’t take into account that most people become increasingly sedentary in their mid-thirties.

Athletes in other sports continue to excel into their late thirties and early forties. The winner of the women’s Olympic marathon yesterday (or maybe today) was 38 years old, I believe. There simply isn’t much data on middle-aged women and their ability to perform work. For one thing, who would fund such research? The federal government has set priorities for medical research and that pertaining to healthy people isn’t very far up on the list and understandably so.

To train at the level required to be successful at this level seems to require three things: opportunity, motivation and incentive. The first, opportunity, essentially comes down to a coach willing to train you, a pool in which you can swim, and adequate time to be able to train. Most athletes have the burden of trying to eat, pay the rent, and accomplish everything else in life that allows you to survive. Dara has had the opportunity.

Motivation is the next factor. This is out of my domain (as a physiologist) and perhaps could better be handled by a sport Psychologist such as our Dr Raglin here at IU. Motivation is a personal and or psychological issue that coaches (and athletes) deal with nearly minute to minute. It is difficult to understand what motivates athletes, let alone just plain people, to do what they do. Having dealt with two kids and two step-kids… all I can say is that it remains a topic of mystery to me.

The flip side of motivation, or a component of it, has to be incentive. This is often much more tangible and could be a contributor to motivation. It could be setting records ( Phelps - eight for eight in 08!) or it could be making money. It might be personal identity as an athlete or being a member of team. It might be representing the USA in the Olympics or setting an example for other women. In short, Dara clearly has/had the incentive to prepare for these Games. Former Coach Knight while still a member of the IU family once commented that “All athletes have the will to win, champions have the will to prepare to win!” Will implies motivation and incentive. Prepare requires the third component, opportunity.

From the biologist’s perspective, the data on aging suggests that performance and in this case athletic performance, declines at a rate that is roughly ½ of that of the common biological markers of aging. Many of these markers decline at or around one half percent per year after age 30 years or so. In Dara’s case, we could easily hypothesize that given she was an Olympic medalist at age 33 years (the oldest swimmer to do so and a record she has now extended by eight years!) even if her physiology caused a 2% decline over the last ten years, she started off being 5% faster than her competitors years ago!

You could ask, “why was she faster than her competitors way back when?” Good question. Relevant question. If there is an athlete whose stroke mechanics I would recommend our swimmers (and other swimmers) emulate… it is Dara Torres. She swims with mechanics that my mentor, Doc Counsilman, would love! She, in my opinion, has nearly flawless freestyle technique. Nothing fancy or unusual but simple classic freestyle mechanics.

Technique can trump limitations imposed by physiology and I suppose, psychology. Our other “technicians” include Michael Phelps in his fly, Aaron Peirsol swimming backstroke, Natalie Coughlin … in almost every event and the Japanese swimmer Kitajima in breaststroke. Rebecca Soni isn’t too bad either. But improvement in technique is something swim coaches should and necessarily do focus on. But as is often quoted in the coaching profession “you can lead a horse to water but you can’t force him to drink.” Athletes make the changes, coaches coach. Athletes swim the races, coaches hold the stop watches.

So, to quickly draw conclusions here, consider this: Dara Torres might not be so unusual but there isn’t enough data to support this either way. She is truly a remarkable human specimen at six feet tall, lean and muscular. She has long arms and big feet. She has performed at the international level for more than twenty years. She is motivated, has incentive and has the opportunity to prepare for the USA Olympic Trials in such a way that has provided her with the chance to race here in Beijing. The question no one has asked yet, is: “can she do it again four years from now?” My answer would be… why not?

Now for something completely different:

The music within the hall is eclectic to be honest. It includes American country music (some song about a woman in a mini skirt) and Madonna (I think) and a little light rock. At first I thought I would like to have a cd of the music they play here. But after more than a week of listening to this at a decibel level just below that which could pop a balloon let alone shatter glass… I can only quote the famous boxer “no mas!” Does anyone know how to ask in polite Chinese “ Please, could you turn the music down – just a notch?”

And can you imagine attending a swim meet without a heat sheet? I quit asking officials on day three because I could tell there was a problem in translation. They kept responding to my question with “do not concern yourself with the heat. The pool is air conditioned.”

Jason Lezak continues to impress. I wouldn’t recommend mimicking his stroke mechanics though his results have to be placed up there with the best of all time. Michael needs to take him to dinner… twice. And pay. Phelps would have two fewer gold medals to his credit if Lezak were eating popcorn shrimp of the top of Jingwuay Mountian miles south of here. I hope that Jason is remembered in US Olympic history as one of, if not the best relay swimmers of all time.

Some final observations. China is changing and changing fast. There are things going on here that are incredible and would not have been possible ten years ago. I spent several hours yesterday visiting a ‘humong’. This consists of a cluster of homes built in the twelfth and thirteen centuries and still inhabited today. Many square miles of these were eliminated to build the venues for the Olympic Games. Estimates suggest that as many as 1.5 million people were displaced and their ancient homes destroyed to make way for this event. It isn’t clear what use the venues will be put to after the 2008 Games and yet the people here are proud of what they have been able to accomplish. Nevertheless, those Humongs which continue to exist have been designated as world heritage sites and currently protected from further removal.
Under the communist rule post WWII, there was repression and isolation from the world community. The Chinese remember this era well and are nearly universally optimistic about their personal future and that of their country. “Beijing” I was told by a local, “Is Washington D.C., New York City, Beverly Hills all combined. It is the best of China and a world into itself.” That is so true.

We spent time last night in a cultural district near the Forbidden City. Following a “two duck dinner” comprised of Peking Duck (kaoya) in a restaurant (QuanJuDe) whose doors first opened during America’s civil war (1864), we watched (with several hundred Chinese patriots) the USA women defeat the Chinese in volleyball. (no hard feelings right?) on a wall-sized TV. We then strolled a street (Jiuha Jie?) that I would have to say rivals (and combines) the French Quarters in New Orleans, the music strip in Nashville, Tennessee, Las Ramblas in Barcelona, Spain, Deep Ellum in Dallas and South Beach in Miami for being a chaotic mix of contemporary music, modern art, food, high fashion and people. I was very hesitant about visiting this area but our local friend made it clear that we had to see this to believe it. It was every bit the spectacle she promised and for me a shock to my senses. It has caused me to rethink my perceptions of China and the ‘Middle Kingdom.” The young people here are like young people everywhere. Through advances in technology and, of course, the internet, the world has become much smaller and in many ways much freer community. The creativity of the people of china was on full display (think of the architecture and artistic presentation of the opening ceremonies) and aptly reflects what I saw on this avenue. Unfortunately, I didn’t have a camera with me. But photos wouldn’t have done justice to the experience anyway. You can probably find some on the web if you are really motivated. It was a fitting end to my experiences in Beijing and China. It was also a much more fitting image of what the future entails here and what the organizers of the BOG-2008 games envisioned. The images we have of sullen workers in blue collarless garb is no more. The image of China should be of a creative, energetic and optimistic society rushing headlong into the future with confidence and hope. The doors are open and I encourage those of you who travel to consider Beijing as a interesting and unusual experience! Thanks for your interest in my travels, swimming and this and that. I hope you enjoyed my musings! See you soon in B’town.

Olympic Research Update by the Counsilman Center

For those of you who are interested.. in statistics, we can make an educated guess (of an unknown mean) with a certain amount of confidence based on our sample data. A 95% confidence interval is a range of values (plus or minus 2 standard deviations) between which we are 95% confident the actual mean will lie. So, if an event is more than 2 standard deviations faster (or slower) than our predicted mean, then we can say there is a significant difference between the actual and predicted means. Of course, there is always chance for error and, on occasion, we conclude that the two means are different when in reality they are not.

Our predicted means are based on the previous 7 Olympics Games and, in many cases, are very strong. That is, our ability to predict the mean of the final heat in many swimming events is strengthened by the fact that we can account for (in many cases) up to 90% of the variance. What this means is, although the rate of improvement of the top 8 swimmers in each event over time is not linear, it is predictable. Theoretically, if there are a number of events in the 2008 Olympic Games that fall outside of plus or minus 2 standard deviations of our predicted mean, then there may be some outside variable(s) working to alter swim performance. Without proper scientific testing, our explanation of any extraordinary change in performance is speculative at best.

So far, with 10 events remaining (5 men, 5 women), we have successfully predicted the mean of the top 8 finalists in two male and 4 female events. Our predictions were more than two standard deviations slower than the actual top 8 mean in 6 men’s and 4 women’s events and, in many cases, were so much faster than our confidence interval that I nearly choked on a chocolate covered cherry (good for recovery)! Compare that with our failed predictions in 2000 (1 men’s event) and 2004 (2 men’s events) and one cannot help but ponder possible explanations for these phenomenal performances. Further, virtually all of the 2008 finalists are below the lower confidence interval. For example, in the men’s 200 fly and 100 freestyle, seven of the eight finalists were faster than the fastest time that would allow for our predictions to be successful. Our failed predictions are not the result of one or two guys being so far ahead of the field, rather across the board everyone is faster.

Along with our predicted means, we have also listed the athletes who had previously swum within out confidence interval. It is reasonable to assume that these athletes have a chance to final and perhaps win. Of course it is possible to have a ‘dark horse’ bust out of the cornfields and win a medal, but if there are many instances when a swimmer ‘off the radar’ wins gold… well we’ll leave that to the scientists. Oh, right… this may be further evidence supporting a substantial shift in the progression of swim performance over time. Of the events so far, Park (South Korea) was not previously within our predicted range, but won gold in the 400 FR and silver in the 200 FR. Also, the women’s 400 FR, 200 FR, and 200 Fly had medalists who were not previously within our predictions.

Finally, to provide further evidence that a bias has been introduced into competitive swim performance, the number of world record performances in the last two years has been much greater than we predicted based on previous years. Averaged over the last 30 years, the month of August has had about 4 world records. So far, 18 world records have dropped in the 2008 Olympic Games. While it is true that previous Olympics have had as many, if not more, world record performances, the suggested bias in 2008 is supported by the fact that that the rate of change (as a function of simply the number of WR occurrences) appears to be slowing at a relatively stable rate within the last 24 years or so. That is, much like the rate of improvement in any given event is declining as our sport matures, the number of world record performances has been getting less and less over time. Until recently. The cause of this temporary irregularity will be speculative, at best, unless reinforced by historical confirmations. Please see the following link fyi.
http://research.indiana.edu/news/stories/0220.html

Regards,
Chris Brammer
Counsilman Center for the Science of Swimming

Light Tower

A Great Air Day

The Third Ring

Day 9

Thursday in Beijing, Min Zu Yuan Rd. Chao Yang PRC

Records, records and a few disappointments for the US team.

But first this:
The first few days here it seemed as if we pretty much had Olympic Green to ourselves. This appears to be as a result of only a few competitions taking place here--- early in the week. All that changed yesterday and in a big way. People from around the world are arriving here and the village is coming alive. I like it. We discussed the possibility that the Chinese had over estimated things given the sparse nature of the crowds we were seeing (were seeing) and now we know differently. The crowds have arrived. It is great! I suspect that once Track and Field events begin it will be very busy here as the Birds Nest is gigantic and seats around 90 thousand.

(This just in…. turns out the Chinese are now selling non-event tickets that allow you into the Olympic Green but don’t allow you to go see an event. You can visit the displays, buy food ( see below) and souvenirs. I am not sure they are selling them.., but if I had to guess, I’d say they are. Given there are 12 million or so people in the city…. What a great idea!)

It is still true that there are very few Europeans and fewer Americans. When you do run into them (them is us!) they are very likely to be affiliated with a team or parent, sister, brother or athlete. The theme the Chinese are shouting loudly appears to be true.. as “we are one world” rings very true here.

I had lunch today at McDonalds. It is very hard to admit this but quite honestly it is the best food choice available. Actually, it is the only choice available. Well, not quite the only choice.

You can, however, buy self-cooked lunches here. Self- cooked doesn’t mean what it means at home. The consumer does little. The lunch cooks itself. You pull a string on the lower portion of the container and it releases water into a chemical pack. The water begins to superheat through a chemical reaction and rapidly reaches phase change or boiling temperature. Your food cooks while you stand at the food kiosk watching. After ten minutes the ‘meal’ is ready to go…. If it weren’t too hot to pick up. Which it is. So you have to wait ten minutes before you can go anywhere.

What is it? Rice and some kind of chicken…. Uhh… parts. “Chicken parts.” That is the only way to describe the contents. But the meal is hot. “Hot chicken parts.” Perhaps that is the Chinese translation. I suppose I should tell you that when they cut up a chicken here, they don’t bother to remove the bones first? So the “hot chicken parts should maybe be something akin to “Crunchy and hot chicken parts.” And while it sounds bland, I can attest to the fact that it is anything but. To make it edible the manufacturer adds plenty of pepper and other spices. Thus, to be exact (which the Chinese usually are) the meal is more accurately referred to as “ Self-cooked, spicy and crunchy, hot chicken parts.” With rice. I almost forgot. “Self cooked, spicy and crunchy, hot chicken parts with rice.” Steamed white rice. Well, you get the idea. McDonalds is a better option.

And as long as we are on that topic, McDonalds is a major sponsor and thus, as the Chinese Organizer have assured sponsors that there will be no competition in the venue…. Mickie D’s is it. So it really does come down to a Big Mac or “self cooked spicy, and crunchy, hot chicken parts with steamed rice.” No competition there.

I am forced to add some personal commentary here. My friend Pan from China has told me "the Chinese will eat everything with legs except the kitchen table.” “And many more things that don’t have legs.” Menus are long and the variety of food stuffs is amazing. You have to wonder why they would embrace a menu with about a dozen realistic choices… all imported directly from America. America where our children face an epidemic of health concerns related to obesity.

And while on that topic… it is very unusual to see anyone from China overweight and even more uncommon to see anyone who could accurately be referred to as obese. Do you think that there is a connection between American fast food and…. traditional Chinese fare… and obesity? Could be. There are probably other factors as well. But the bottom line is that for now…when out on the streets of Beijing… you see fit and trim locals and very few overweight people--- regardless of age. Someone needs to understand how and or why this is true.

And one more thought on this topic. My mother always encouraged me to finish my dinner because there were “starving children in China..” So mom, I gotta tell you right now, I haven’t seen any. You can rest easy after all these years of worry. And Beijing is a city of over twelve million souls! It is not as if the Chinese government has hidden them all. We see children everywhere we go.

It is true that they have far fewer material belongings than we Americans do. We could all live without about 80% of what we have. True? But that is another issue all together. As far as food goes…. there appears to be plenty of it here. And yet, no rampant obesity. Hmmmm. All these thoughts come while sitting in a McDonalds in BOG Olympic Green among an estimated nine hundred Chinese. I want to hold up a sign that says “be careful of what you wish for!”
On to swimming for just a bit. The onslaught (is that the correct expression?) of world records in swimming is perplexing. Maybe even troubling. The causes and or reasons for the recent multiple records in competitive swimming, however, are of interest to both the general public, swimmers and coaches and the scientific community. Why now? Is it a matter of significantly better talent? How much faster can the records get? Is this really an unusual occurrence and are the records being set at an unprecedented rate? It sure seems so! Are the new records a result of new training techniques or enhanced nutrition? Is the technology associated with the new swims suits or novel pharmacology assisting swimmers in a manner that prior to now did not occur? As usual, the questions are much easier to pose than is the process for finding the correct answers to them. There may, however, be evidence available that helps shed light on this ‘record setting’ observation.

In the past, scholarly interest in the prediction of the boundaries of human performance has largely focused upon performance in running events. Similar to swimming, however, there is very little technology required by the track athlete beyond a pair of shoes. That used to be especially true for swimming. Until now.

In track, as a means to predict performances, initial analyses relied primarily upon linear regression models using prior performances to predict future athletic records. Criticism of this approach include the observation that linear models do not allow for an ‘ultimate limit’ to human performance. Eventually, given enough time, the linear models supposed by several authors predict “humans will run negative world record times”. While this is clearly absurd, linear models of performance do not allow or accept that there may be physiological, anatomical and biomechanical limitations that simply cannot be overcome by better training, more practice or better protoplasm.

Neither do these early linear models take into account improvements in such factors as nutrition, coaching knowledge, sociological and or economic factors that might influence performance (in either direction). Finally, linear models do not account for the fact that the characteristics of the competitors and competition used to generate model may influence the slope of the progression line. If the sport has only recently been introduced, it stands to reason that the rate of improvement will be greater early on as compared with that observed twenty or thirty years later simply as a matter of the sport itself approaching maturity.

For example, analysis of women’s events would suggest that their performances are improving at a greater rate than are the men’s. As a result, linear analysis suggests that eventually, in some events, the women’s records will eclipse those of the men. While not impossible, it is more likely that the relationship is not linear and that with time, the rate of improvement in women’s records will slow and become similar to that seen in the progression of the men’s records.
Human movement in the water, i.e., swimming, in many ways is a more complicated athletic performance to understand than is running. This is due, in part, to our current inability to fully understand and explain the fundamental biomechanics of swimming. Because of the complex nature of the relationships between propulsive forces and resistive forces in the water the mechanisms that allow humans to move at speeds in excess of two meters a second are, as yet, only partially described. Nevertheless, statistical analysis of swim performances can be performed in a manner similar to what has been done in running with the singular reasonable assumption that there is a limit to how fast a human can swim over a set distance.
Have I lost you yet? Yes? Maybe it is the double cheese burger I just ate! Or maybe it was the caffeine in the Coke (another major sponsor) which is said to heighten arousal and enhance brain activity. Hang with me.

Let’s try this: pictures are worth a thousand words, right? So here goes.
Chris Brammer, Dave Tanner and Kosuke Kojima and I have been thinking about this for the last couple weeks. Chris put together for me a couple of graphs to illustrate what is taking place. Figure 1 represents the improvement in swim speed in the men’s 100-meter freestyle when represented as speed (meters per second) as a function of time. The values provided are the average of all of the records set within an Olympiad quadrennial. Thus, for example, although the first person to swim faster than two meters per second for 100 meters did so in 1976 (Jim Montgomery, USA, 1976) the mean value for records during that Olympiad was somewhat less than two meters per second. This relationship can also be represented as simply date vs. event time (in seconds) as shown in Figure 2.

One caveat to any mathematical analysis of swim performance (and subsequent predictions of performance) based upon prior performances, is that undefined and confounding variables may introduce biases into the analysis and potentially perturbs the ability of any subsequent model to be accurate. For example, documented use of performance enhancing pharmacological compounds during the early to mid 1970’s causes an overestimation of the rate of potential improvements in subsequent years. In other words, performances subsequent to this era will appear as if something has caused a slowing of the progression rather than the return to a normal ‘unbiased’ progression after drug usage was curbed by advanced testing or the ability to secure the most effective drugs. As time goes by, however, additional performances will ‘correct’ the model allowing for earlier truly biased performances to be seen. The cause of the temporary perturbations will be speculative, at best, unless reinforced by historical confirmations.

In this regard, modeling performances on past competition might allow insight into one current controversy in competitive swimming. The newly introduced “body suits” pit swimming purists directly against commercial financial interests. The debate centers on the introduction of high technology swim apparel into swim competition. Until recently, the regulatory concern within the competitive swimming community was to enforce the rules that insured enough coverage in a swim suit worn during competition as to be socially acceptable. The newest generation suits eliminate this problem by covering the majority of the skin surface with reputedly ‘low resistance’ fabrics and materials. Due to the nature of commerce and claims of “proprietary” knowledge, very little specific data exists identifying the magnitude (if any) of the effect of these new suits on swim performance. Because of the existent rules in swimming limiting the use of technology to improve performance or alter buoyancy, commercial marketing of these suits is limited to inferences about the improvements in performance rather than any specifics. It is reasoned that the influence of the new high-tech suits can be measured if mathematical models based upon swim performances prior to their introduction are sensitive enough to do so. Interestingly, because none of these new suits existed prior to 2000 and it is possible to document when newer versions have been introduced, the athletes and their performances can be used to test if these suits have introduced unnatural rates of improvement into the sport.
An additional hypothesis might be that the recent attention and financial rewards generated by the Olympic Games might be a catalyst for setting world records in swimming such that not only are more records set during the year prior to the Olympic year but more records are set specifically during the month the Olympic Games (and Olympic Trials) are held. While there are other important competitions in swimming (World Championships, Pan Pacifics, Commonwealth Games, etc), the Olympic Games still represent the pinnacle of public awareness and the greatest opportunity for financial support for the athletes. The bottom line is this: sitting in the stands in the “Water Cube” over the last three days… I can’t remember the number of world records that have been set. Let’s just say a lot. Coach Steen adds ”a whole lot.”

The problem is, we don’t know at this point, who (or what) should be getting credit for these records. Many people are giving Speedo and TYR credit. Others would like to give the athletes and coaches at least some credit. But nobody really knows for sure. It isn’t as if the swimming community sat down and discussed all of this beforehand. There wasn’t any initiative by the swim community to “stimulate excitement by shortening the pool or changing the rules to elevate competition.” Major league baseball did do this a few years ago when they lowered the pitchers mound to help improve batting averages. The result was better hitting and more offense. Fundamentally, that is different from what is taking place in swimming here today. A corporate entity (or two or three) decided it could cash in by circumventing the rules governing the sport. Sure Michael Phelps deserves credit for all of his success. But to what extend are his records aided by Speedo? Is this ’technological doping’ as one Italian coach suggested... or not? The problem is…. We simply don’t know!

More to come later…. as it is time now to attend another Olympic swim extravaganza.! Results will follow. As will more of this story…. A long, long, long story!!

Ok. Back to business. The US women are struggling. Hopefully we will update you on that tomorrow or later today. Soni has done a terrific job so far and looks good going into the last couple days. Beard isn’t going to make it in the 200. Hoff and Zeigler are done in the 800 I think. They did not look good tonight. In this case, it might also be due to the suit. Only it might be a negative rather than a positive one. It could be affecting their body position in the water altering their feel. The Chinese women looked terrific and they swam in simple, traditional swim suits tonight! Ha! The 100 fly was very, very fast and we will be lucky to get two medals here if any at all. The fifty free was even faster. I just don’t see the USA getting anything there. You had to be faster than the standing Olympic record to make into the finals. Yow min. There was no holding back and no coasting in this one. The big conundrum for the USA comes to Phelps or Crocker in the 4 x 100 medley relay. If Crocker sets a record in the 100 fly and wins… how do you choose Phelps for the relay? He did not impress tonight. If Crocker wins but does not set the record….does he still go in the relay? If he does…. it doesn’t matter anyway because Phelps no longer has a shot at eight. But Phelps is swimming well and Crocker…. We’ll see!

Do you know why 8 is such a big deal? It is the best number in China…. Lucky lucky lucky. Hence 8/8/08!

Tomorrow. Downtown Beijing. The markets, the neighborhoods. The Temple of Heaven. The Summer Palace and a two hour interview with the ‘Newsweek’ of China.

And of course, more swimming and the rest of the story!

View from hotel room

The Swim Venue

The New China

Joel and Josh Davis

Lunch: Bad Wandering Fish

Day 8

Late night in old Beijing. Feet up. Air conditioning on.

The “Joel and Jim’s Excellent Olympic Swim Saga” took a turn for the better today. Yesterday we moved into new ‘digs’ across the road from the Olympic Venues. New is the right word as we’ve been told the building is less than 2 months old and it may be that no one has stayed in our room yet. It has saved us considerable time and considerable money (that’s all good huh?). It turns out that the hotels and such are not as full as anticipated and the prices are dropping. There are still rooms available at reasonable prices. Of course, the price is still very high relative to the average salary of the Chinese. This chance will not come again for the local businesses and thus the hotels and such are getting what they can while they can. We are spending half what we spent previously and we have no taxi rides to suffer though (or pay for!) It is about a 20 minute walk to the pool from here! Hurray, hurray!

We are quickly getting to know people here. It is difficult not to be noticed when traveling in a country of predominantly black hair and brown eyes. Few Chinese have the distinguishing characteristics of blue eyes and six foot some odd inches ( and even fewer have grey hair). Jim and I are not easily missed here, in just about any crowd. But I sense almost no animosity at all from everyone we talk to. Most seem to want to talk to us. Most are surprised we are from the US which is a little odd. I am guessing that we are the first Americans most of them have ever met. I am not quite sure what they expect. Jim and I are pretty average American guys, right? They almost all state that they wish to some day be able to come to the USA to visit. The USA remains the land of opportunity for the world. Many also admit that they love America but “do not respect our current government”. They separate their feelings about the American people from that of the US policy makers---which says a lot, I think. It is something that we as a nation of the people and by the people must always remember. And we must make sure our actions towards the peoples of other nations are appropriate in kind.
It is obvious that many, many people in Beijing spent long hours preparing for these games. Nearly everyone we have met has studied English in an effort to be able to assist visitors to the BOG. I wonder if we would do the same if the shoe were on the other foot? Almost universally, the people here apologize for their poor English. Jim likes to point out that their poor English is much better than our Chinese. I know three words so far… but there is no way for me to attempt to spell them. In short, I can say ‘hello, thank you and cheers’. That’s it. And their writing? Wow. There are supposedly more than 3000 symbols in the Chinese language and in effect there is no alphabet, as we know it. That explains to some degree the order of the march of athletes during the opening ceremony. It is so complicated that the Chinese often argue about the meaning of the writing on signs and ‘points of interest.’ Apparently to make things more complicated, there are modern symbols mixed with ancient symbols and they are at times mixed together. At least that is how it was explained to me. Or should I say how I understood what was told to me.

Beijing is comprised of “circles” or “rings.” I think I understand that there are now five rings…. Sound familiar? The first ring surrounds the “Forbidden City.” This is the area in which the Emperors and Empresses lived and common people were not allowed entrance. Hence, forbidden.

The next ring was essentially an ancient moat around the center of Beijing formed by several rivers. Most of this ring no longer exists for the most part. The third ring was comprised of a great wall similar to what is generally thought of as “the Great Wall.” It was many hundreds of years old, made out of cut stone block and brick, and about thirty feet tall. It was supposed to keep invaders out, but with a laugh, most Chinese will tell you it did little to protect Beijing. Again and again and again. In fact, a woman told me today that when the Chinese people heard about the Bush plan to build a wall to stop the Mexicans from crossing the southern border they find it funny! We need to learn more from the Chinese they say. In essence, they say – “those who fail to learn from history are doomed to repeat it.” I guess that thought is common in all languages.

The fourth ring is new and is a great highway not unlike I-465 around Indianapolis. And now, to accommodate the Olympic Games and Beijing’s modernization (adoption of the automobile) there is a fifth ring as well. Five rings. Olympics. Olympic rings… get it?

Back to the saga. We were doing our best to convince a taxi driver to take us back to our original hotel. It took the combined efforts of five police officers and multiple safety patrol people to flag one down. But the hotel was so far out of town that no driver would take us. Three Chinese women walked by and one stopped suddenly, turned, pointed to me and said in English “you are from the Midwest!”

In short order she told the officers what to do (sounded more like ‘where to go’ if you catch my drift) and stopped a cab giving perfect directions and everyone a lecture to boot! She proceeded to give me her name (Fran) phone number, email and local address, and told us to call if we had any further problems. “ Oh, by the way” she said “I live in Chicago. I have been to Bloomington many times. My mother lives here in Beijing and we (her and her two boys) are visiting Beijing for the summer.”

In return, Jim called and offered to buy her lunch to thank her for her help. Just as we were doing so (bad wandering fish!) … we found out we had extra tickets for the swimming events for tonight. We gave them to her, picked up her two boys and zipped to the venue. Most surprising of all… both boys are on an age group swim club in the USA. They both were treated for asthma at a young age and their doctor advised swimming as an activity that would be great for them. How is that for coincidence? Can you imagine going to the Olympic Games as a seven year old and sitting next to Coach Steen? It is still an amazing experience for me at the tender age of 55. They wont soon forget it. Neither will I.

Tomorrow, our luck runs out. We have no tickets for the morning swim finals. It will give us an opportunity though, to go into parts of the city we haven’t seen and embrace the real Beijing. This is a big, big city and there is much to see. We are hoping to visit one of the “Courtyard neighborhoods” named by UNESCO as world heritage sites. These areas are nearly a thousand years old and rapidly being leveled as a means to allow for modernization. It is our hope to walk these areas and immerse ourselves in something other than chlorine. I also hope to visit the Temple of Heaven and maybe eat some Peking duck for lunch.

Now.. how bout some thoughts on swimming? Natalie Coughlin is a technician when it comes to starts and turns. If you are going to copy someone, she is the one to copy. She didn’t out-swim the competition. But she did ‘out-finesse’ the competition. Coventry is having a great week. If there was such a thing… she should be in line for the female swimmer of the 2008 games. She needs to study Natalie’s start and turns!

Peirsol. He is as loose as they come. But don’t bet against him when the gun goes off. He is one heck of a competitor. Wow. And what a great strategy. He put himself into the finals with just enough effort to get in. When it counts… set a world record and take home the gold. You gotta love him. The USA went one two in this event with a Russian and Australian tying for third. How unusual is that?

The swimming venue is packed and remains the hottest ticket in town. Everyone is envious of the fact that we haven’t missed a session yet. Rumor has it I could pay for my trip by selling one ticket. No way. Not gonna happen. Nope.

When you walk through the venue you see recognizable faces and more or less walking swimming history. Alexander Popoff, Gary Hall Jr, Sabir Mohammad, Jenny Thompson, Summer Sanders, Janet Evans, and many, many more. It is a swim junkie’s ultimate dream come true. I will be doing the dishes for a decade in return for Nan allowing me to come. But don’t tell her I said so.

Did I mention that the sky was blue today and the humidity under control? Yes, today was a great day! A great day in my life.