Tuesday, August 12, 2008

Day 7 August 12

North of Beijing. But only a little bit.

Well, things are heating up again here in Beijing. This is true both out on the Olympic Green and in the pool. If you read the news today… there is now ‘trash talking’ in the swimming world. Maybe a good thing… maybe not. Swimmers have been universally respectful of their competition and, well…. Maybe polite is an apt word. Fortunately for the USA Team, they won the ‘argument’ this morning by winning ‘round one’ of the relays for men. By a few hundredths of a second. But then, that is all it takes. There is much more to come from these boys. We’ll see if the US team can continue to squeak ‘em out.

Coach George was at the swim venue again today. I am trying to upload a picture for you. I’ve labeled it “where is W” as in “where’s Waldo?” See if you can find him!

The best way to describe the ‘feel’ here is that it reminds me of EPCOT in Disney World. There are those that might criticize the Disney experience. But the feeling of mutual respect and lack of fear of our differences is almost tangible. It is a great place to people watch. The Chinese have made an attempt to show case three things… green… leaving a small environmental footprint…. Showcasing China’s technical advancements…. And People, making the venues available to the people first. These three things they have done in superior fashion. They have planted trees and laid sod. They have built parks surrounding the venues. They have relied upon natural lighting through walls and ceilings. They have worked hard to provide transportation to the games via public buses and provided new walkways and such. I suspect you might be more aware of the technology than we are but the Chinese have developed venues in which their technology is showcased! They are by no means behind us in this department.

I need to emphasize how difficult it has been for our swimmers, particularly those swimming multiple events. And what a great job they are doing. This is a very large place. I feel as if I am two inches shorter already due to wearing off the bottom of my feet through all the walking. The swimmers cannot work out in the competition pool other than warm ups prior to each session. If you’re not in that session, I am told you can’t get in the pool. I would love to take a quick dip….. but don’t want to spend the next three years in Mongolia “working out” on a rock pile.

The big surprise here seems to be how well Great Britain is swimming as a team. We’ll have to ask what Louisa Raisbeck knows about this once she gets back home in B’town from back home in England. Their women are swimming particularly fast! It is said that Bill Sweetenham laid the foundation for their successes. Doc Counsilman always remarked about what a great coach he is.

The other observation seems to be that the playing field is becoming more even. That is not a good thing for the USA. We are swimming well for the most part but the rest of the world is swimming well too. Tomorrow morning (for me) the USA has a couple big races. It is clear that the Chinese people are appreciative and knowledgeable about swimming. They are really supportive and enthusiastic. The Chinese swimmers have had some great swims! You can tell that they are inspired and have trained very hard to perform well at these Games. They do not give up or nor do they give in!

In the prelims for the women’s 200 free… it appears that you pretty much will have to be under the standing Olympic Record (before today) to make it into the finals.

I am hoping Chris Brammer will continue to report in on the numbers and statistics. From my view…. And with only a few exceptions, everyone is swimming very, very fast. In the women’s 200 free prelims, the Olympic record was shattered twice and then destroyed a final time. More than two seconds were dropped in the prelims. Pellegrini from Italy broke the record by more than two seconds, as did Isakovic from Slovakia. They both went under 1:56. Amazing. Remember… this is just in the prelims. Tomorrow they swim the semifinals!

Taking a picture of the venues is turning out to be difficult. They are so enormous that it is impossible to get them in the frame. The ground they are built on is perfectly level and flat such that there isn’t any way to get a perspective or vantage point that works. I guess that is why we pay the professionals.

I have found out through the Blog… that it is likely that I can definitely outrun a Panda. But I probably cant out run a Panda indefinitely. I don’t see that as a major problem for now. I haven’t seen any Pandas. Yet. Does anyone know if Pandas can swim? And if so… can they swim fast?

And finally, while looking at a menu today… we found and entrĂ©e labeled “bad wandering fish.” Doesn’t sound like something I should consider for dinner. Is there something I should know about this dish?

Do you know that it is common in many nice restaurants here to keep the food fresh by keeping it alive? When you walk in… you are faced many times with twenty or more large aquariums. Nice until you realize that when you order seafood you will be asked to pick out exactly which fish you’d like to have cooked. Hmmmm. I’d like Nemo over there.

The session is over now here in Beijing and once again… we have done well. Peirsol looked loose and focused. Coughlin was really something off the walls and starts. She had a tough double and made it through in …medal winning performance. Michael again lived up to his press. He is one of a kind and can leave the rest of the field at will. A great day for US swimming.

3 comments:

Chris B. said...

Yes, for those of you who are interested.. in statistics, we can make an educated guess (of an unknown mean) with a certain amount of confidence based on our sample data. A 95% confidence interval is a range of values (plus or minus 2 standard deviations) between which we are 95% confident the actual mean will lay. So, if an event is more than 2 standard deviations faster (or slower) than our predicted mean, then we can say there is a significant difference between the actual and predicted means. Of course, there is always chance for error and, on occasion, we conclude that the two means are different when in reality they are not.
Our predicted means are based on the previous 7 Olympics games and, in many cases, are very strong. That is, our ability to predict the mean of the final heat in many swimming events is strengthened by the fact that we can account for (in many cases) up to 90% of the variance. What this means is, although the rate of improvement of the top 8 swimmers in each event over time is not linear, it is predictable. Theoretically, if there are a number of events in the 2008 Olympic games that fall outside of plus or minus 2 standard deviations of our predicted mean, then there may be some outside variable(s) working to alter swim performance. Without proper scientific testing, our explanations of an extraordinary change in performance is speculative at best. I'll keep you posted with results.

Chris B. said...

When compared to our predictions, the averages of the latest finals were:
W 100 Fly: almost 2 standard deviations faster
M 100 BR: almost 5 standard deviations faster
W 400 FR: just over 1 standard deviation faster
M 200 FR: just over 1 standard deviation faster
W 100 BK: almost 4 standard deviations faster
M 100 BK: over 3 standard deviations faster
W 100 BR: exactly our predictions!

Research and statistics aside, the mens 800 Free relay will go under 7:00 and will be as impressive as the 400 free relay (however it will not be as close of a race).

Unknown said...

I'm no Panda expert but according to Q4 at http://www.wwfchina.org/english/pandacentral/htm/learn_about_giant_panda/panda_q_a/panda_behavior_habitat.htm (or http://tinyurl.com/6lmfk) Panda's can indeed swim (but my money is still on Phelps!). And if you don't check out the whole link, at least see Q1 - whatever you do, just don't cross a female Panda...
-Momi